163  
FXUS63 KGID 250013  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
613 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025  
   
..AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
- COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN WARMING NEXT WEEK.  
 
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN (INCLUDING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR  
WINTRY PRECIPITATION), ARRIVES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 345M CST FRI JAN 24 2025  
 
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA, POST-FRONTAL  
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS (ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW) WILL  
SLIDE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SNOW IS MOST FAVORED OVER  
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT EVEN HERE ACCUMULATION IS VERY  
UNLIKELY.  
 
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, RESULTING  
IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID  
30S). SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WINDS RETURN TO THE  
WEST. TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN TO THE 50S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
AS THE TROUGH OF COLDER AIR SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEST TO  
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE.  
 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CUTOFF LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE  
OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING  
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, BUT DETAILS IN  
TIMING/TRACK/INTENSITY ALL REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES (AND  
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION TYPE) WILL ALSO BE A COMPLICATING  
FACTOR. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT PACK MUCH COLD AIR WITH IT, SO ALL  
PRECIPITATION TYPES (RAIN, SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET) ARE STILL  
"ON THE TABLE." THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES (GEFS/GEPS/EPS) ALONG  
WITH THE 19Z NBM ALL SHOWED A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SNOW  
PROBABILITIES, BUT STILL ONLY SHOW A 30-40% CHANCE FOR 1" OF  
NEW SNOW THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.  
 
BEYOND THAT, MODELS HINT AS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN, WITH  
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF  
FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES ALSO TREND COOLER, AND BELOW-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING FORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST  
7-10 DAYS OF FEBRUARY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025  
 
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:  
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):  
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AND PRECIP-FREE  
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD,  
DESPITE PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND CEILING COMMONLY  
AROUND 10K FT. AGL. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE  
(CURRENTLY DEEMED 20-30%) THAT SOME FLURRIES AND PERHAPS EVEN  
OUTRIGHT LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL OVERNIGHT FOR A TIME, BUT LAYING  
DOWN NO MORE THAN A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION. WIND-WISE,  
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT (MAINLY OUT  
OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST). HOWEVER, SPEEDS WILL VARY,  
WITH THE LIGHTEST NEAR-TO-BELOW 10KT PREVAILING TONIGHT INTO THE  
FIRST PART OF SATURDAY DAYTIME. THEREAFTER, THE LATE MORNING  
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL FAIRLY BREEZY (SUSTAINED SPEEDS  
COMMONLY AROUND 20KT/GUSTS 25-30KT) BEFORE EASING TOWARD THE  
VERY END OF THIS VALID PERIOD.  
 
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW DETAILS:  
AS TOUCHED ON ABOVE, PARTICULARLY THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT  
FEATURES A SMALL (20-30%) CHANCE FOR FLURRIES AND/OR OUTRIGHT  
LIGHT SNOW, WITH KEAR PROBABLY SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED THAN KGRI.  
IF THIS SNOW MATERIALIZES, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD  
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AND/OR A LOW-END VFR CEILING (CLOSER TO 5K  
FT.). CONSIDERED INTRODUCING A PROB30 GROUP TO COVER THIS  
POTENTIALLY "SNEAKY" CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW, BUT GIVEN  
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL OCCUR AT ALL, OPTED TO  
LEAVE ANY SNOW MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND WILL AMEND/UPDATE  
IF NEEDED.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...MANGELS  
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH  
 
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