328
FXUS63 KGID 252330
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
530 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY COOL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, THEN MUCH WARMER
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S/50S, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW 60S IN SPOTS ON TUESDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY EJECTS FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND
ONTO THE PLAINS.
- SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN, BUT
THE EXACT TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL
REMAIN FURTHER W ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUN AM. THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY HELP OUR
NOCTURNAL LOWS, SO DESPITE LGT SFC WINDS, HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
UP A FEW DEG TO REFLECT THIS TREND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND AND MORE
SUN IN THE AFTN, SO SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE.
WARMING TREND KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM SHARP NW FLOW TO ONE THAT IS
MORE SPLIT BETWEEN TROUGHING IN SE CANADA AND OVER THE DESERT
SW. PERSISTENTLY WESTERLY (CHINOOK) LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CONSIDERABLE MODERATION TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON. IN FACT, LATEST NBM PRODUCES WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 50S ON TUESDAY, EVEN NEAR THE DWINDLING SNOW COVER IN OUR
EXTREME SE ZONES. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE
TO NO CLOUD COVER, SO THINK NBM 75TH PERCENTILE TEMPS, WHICH
BOOST SOME OF OUR TYPICALLY FAVORED WARM SPOTS ABOVE 60F, ARE
QUITE PLAUSIBLE. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CAN OFTEN PRODUCE SOME
"SNEAKY" FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE
CASE FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF TEMPS AND
MIXING TREND EVEN A TOUCH HIGHER. AS IT STANDS NOW, MONDAY IS
THE CLOSEST TO "NEAR CRITICAL" FOR MORE THAN ONE OR TWO
COUNTIES, THANKS TO MINIMUM RHS AROUND 25 PERCENT, AND WRLY WIND
GUSTS 20-25 MPH. AREAS FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND W WOULD BE MOST
AT RISK. WILL GIVE IT ONE MORE CYCLE BEFORE ADDING IT TO THE
HWO, BUT CERTAINTLY SOMETHING THAT MID SHIFT COULD ADD TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS ON TUESDAY, LATEST BLEND SUGGESTS
SLIGHTLY LOWER RHS AND WIND GUSTS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND DAILY HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WHAT PRODUCES THE WELL-ADVERTISED MOISTURE TO
THE FIRE-STRICKEN SOCAL REGION IN THE SHORT-TERM, THEN ONLY
SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BOTH GFS AND EC
OUTPUT CLOSES OFF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW AROUND
MIDWEEK. MODELS - PARTICULARLY THE GFS - ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOO
FAST WITH EJECTING THESE LARGE UPPER TROUGHS E ONTO THE PLAINS,
SO TEND TO FAVOR A CONCEPTUAL MODEL THAT DOESN'T BRING PRECIP
CHANCES TO OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THU NIGHT, BUT MORE LIKELY
NOT UNTIL SOMETIME FRI OR EVE FRI NIGHT.
THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RESERVOIR OF COLD AIR
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH, SO HAVE REMOVED ERRONEOUS
FREEZING RAIN MENTION FROM THE NBM. THIS SYSTEM WON'T HAVE MUCH,
IF ANY, EXISTING COLD AIR TO WORK WITH, AND IT'LL HAVE PLENTY
OF TIME TO DRAW WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE N, AS WELL. SO SUSPECT
ANY PRECIP DRIVEN BY WARM CONVEYOR BELT PROCESSES WILL BE MORE
LIQUID THAN FROZEN. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF THE SYSTEM CAN TAKE
ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES KS/NE, AND THUS
POTENTIALLY DYNAMICALLY GENERATE ENOUGH OF ITS OWN COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO WET SNOW. OBVIOUSLY, THESE
TYPES OF DETAILS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT, AND
OVERALL TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE WILL BE KEY.
FWIW...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL DECREASE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
PROBABILITIES ON RECENT ENSEMBLE RUNS - WHICH I TEND TO AGREE
WITH, GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS. NONETHELESS, WILL BE ONE OF
OUR MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEMS WE'VE HAD IN SEVERAL WEEKS AND ONE TO
KEEP A CLOSE TABS ON. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT THAT NEAR TO BELOW TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEBRUARY - MAGNITUDE OF WHICH WILL VERY
MUCH DEPEND ON SNOW COVER BY THEN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE WEST AROUND 12Z. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 00Z MONDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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