877
FXUS63 KGID 261124
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
524 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO MEET RFW CRITERIA; HOWEVER, THOSE WITH
FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS WILL WANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR UPDATES.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
GROUNDHOG DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S EACH DAY.
- HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, A STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
WE START OUT THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER ZONAL FLOW. SPLIT FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN
SPLIT IS A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW, WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE SOUTHERN SPLIT
INVOLVES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GIVE US OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY, WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGHS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL, OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 WILL
REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WESTERN AREAS OF VALLEY,
SHERMAN, DAWSON, GOSPER AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA MAY EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH. EXPECTED HIGHS EACH DAY WILL
REACH THE 50S. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80, IN ADDITION TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GOSPER AND
PHELPS COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF EXPERIENCING NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20-25% IN
THE AFTERNOON, CO-LOCATED WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15-25
MPH. WHILE NO HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR MONDAY, THOSE
WITH FIRE WEATHER AND AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS WILL WANT TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A BRIEF TIME ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF DAWSON,
GOSPER, FURNAS, VALLEY AND SHERMAN COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-30% WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15-25 MPH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BOTH DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. THURSDAY MORNING, THE CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPED
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY,
EVENTUALLY CROSSING INTO KANSAS.
CHANGES FROM 24 HOURS AGO: THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES
IN THE TIMING OF WHEN THE LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST,
AND THE TRACK IT WILL TAKE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTINCT SHIFT
OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. YESTERDAY, SOME MODELS TOOK THE LOW'S
CENTER DIRECTLY OVER THE HASTINGS CWA. THIS MORNING, MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE TRACK SHIFTED TO THE EAST, HEADING ACROSS THE KANSAS
CITY METRO AREA. AREAS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THAT ARE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WILL HAVE A 20- 30% CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A LITTLE IN TERMS OF TIME IT REACHES THE AREA, WHICH
COULD BRING DOWN THESE CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
TAPPING INTO WARM, MOIST GULF MOISTURE, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, RAIN, CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WILL BE
EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY; HOWEVER, WITH THE TREND OF THIS
SYSTEM'S ONSET TIME BEING SLOWED DOWN/DELAYED, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION LINGER LONGER INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS
TODAY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES
CLEARING BY TONIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEKESSER
AVIATION...WEKESSER
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