353
FXUS63 KGID 262210
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR MOISTURE. COLD AIR IS
LACKING, SO APPEARS RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE.
- ENSEMBLES BRING TEMPERATURES COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A BIT PESKIER TODAY THAN EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO,
ESP. FOR THE TRI-CITIES, W AND S. OVERALL, THOUGH, STILL A
DECENT LATE JAN DAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
MID 30S. DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN ON MONDAY. OVERALL, IT'S A
PRETTY TYPICAL COLD SEASON SETUP FOR BOTH TEMPS AND WINDS TO
OVERACHIEVE A BIT...1) SUNNY SKIES 2) DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWEST 3KM 3) VERY DRY AIR FOLLOWING A 1035MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND 4) BARE GROUND. AS SUCH, HAVE TRENDED BOTH TEMPS
AND WINDS UP, AND DEW POINTS DOWN...AND IF DATA SUCH AS THE 15Z
RAP/18Z HRRR ARE ANY INDICATION, THERE MAY NEED TO BE MORE
ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THESE UPDATES NOW BRING
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOLID NEAR-CRITICAL
CRITERIA, WITH SOME AREAS ESP. N/W OF THE TRI-CITIES POSSIBLY
EVEN EXCEEDING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST AN HR OR
TWO RIGHT AROUND MIDDAY. COORDINATION YIELDED A CONSENSUS TO
CONTINUE MESSAGING THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT WITHOUT A
WATCH AS THE OVERALL DURATION OF FIRE CONDITIONS COULD BE
LIMITED. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REALLY MIXED OUT TO ITS FULLEST
POTENTIAL HIGH TEMP AND LOW DEW POINT. THE COLD START TO THE
DAY (WIDESPREAD TEENS) WILL ALSO TAKE SOME WORK TO OVERCOME.
NONETHELESS, RECENT DRY CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN AND SOMETIMES
THESE FIRST 1-2 WARM DAYS COMING OUT OF A COLD SPELL CAN CATCH
PEOPLE OFF GUARD. WE'LL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO AND IN SM AND REASSESS WITH MORE SHORT TERM DATA TONIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, BUT IT
WOULDN'T SHOCK ME IF ONE OR TWO SPOTS HIT 60F EVEN ON MON.
TUESDAY IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD THAN MONDAY,
AND AGAIN, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPOTS W/SW OF THE
TRI-CITIES HIT 60F. DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS, FIRE CONCERNS
AREN'T QUITE AS HIGH (THOUGH STILL "ELEVATED"), OWING TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RHS (MID 20S-LOW 30S) AND LIGHTER WINDS. DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WED WITH ANOTHER DAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SW MID TO
LATE WEEK AND BEGIN TO BRING US AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
MOISTURE AS EARLY AS THU AM. I STILL THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAYTIME HRS WILL BE DRY, THOUGH, AS THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS
(CLOSED UPPER LOWS) TEND TO MOVE SLOWER THAN MODELED 4-5 DAYS
OUT. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MILD TEMPS EARLY TO MID WEEK, THIS
SYSTEM ISN'T GOING TO HAVE ANY COLD AIR TO WORK WITH, AT LEAST
INITIALLY. SO EXPECT ANY OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE
EARLY ON IN THE SYSTEM (THU-THU NIGHT) TO REMAIN LIQUID. EVEN
THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM ON FRI HAS TRENDED WARMER WITH MOST
MODELS KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMS LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE CO-LOCATED. 12Z EPS GIVES ON
10-30% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW, WHICH IS TRENDED LOWER
THAN THE 20-40% CHANCE 24 HRS AGO. ALSO, WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER
LOW FORECAST TO TRACK CLOSER TO I-35 CORRIDOR, SOME W/N ZONES
MAY STRUGGLE TO RECEIVE ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AT ALL. IN
FACT, 12Z EPS KEEPS PROBS FOR >0.1" OF MOISTURE ONLY A 50/50
PROPOSITION FOR AREAS NW OF THE TRI-CITIES. IN CONTRAST, OUR KS
ZONES HAVE A 30-40% FOR EXCEEDING 0.5".
THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT, LEAVING DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES ARE
STILL POINTING TOWARDS A COOLDOWN (AT LEAST BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL) FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: NONE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLDS WILL DECR THIS AFTN AND
LITTLE TO NO CLD COVER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W TO WSW FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH LIGHT SPEEDS TODAY/TONIGHT (5-8KT), THEN STRONGER
BY MID TO LATE MON AM (12G20KT). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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