896
FXUS63 KGID 271712
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1112 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
- FOR TODAY, THESE WARMER TEMPS, ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS-TEENS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS-20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS, NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM NOON-6PM.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE A RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY-
FRIDAY, WITH THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE
THURSDAY EVENING-THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, MODELS POINTING TOWARD THERE
NOT BEING NOTABLY COLD AIR TO WORK WITH, AND MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS RAIN. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON
OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
CURRENTLY...
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH CLEAR SKIES. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA
SHOW THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, SET UP
ALONG THE BASE OF BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE NERN
CONUS, DRIVEN BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS, GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS/GULF COAST REGION, WHILE A LARGER AREA LOW LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CENTRAL/SRN CA. AT THE SURFACE,
AN OVERALL WEAK PATTERN IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ARE GENERALLY WESTERLY, AROUND 5-10 MPH, IF NOT OUTRIGHT
CALM. TEMPS FOR MOST EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
TODAY, INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH THE PATTERN REMAINING WNWRLY, DRIVEN
MAINLY BY THE CANADIAN LOW/SOUTHWARD EXTENDING BROAD TROUGH,
WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST WITH TIME. THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER CA WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST, LOOKING TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF AZ THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD SLIDE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA, MAINLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN TODAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO LIE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL AS INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL. ONE
THING FOLKS WILL NOTE DIFFERENT ABOUT TODAY IS THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH MODELS SHOWING A MODERATING AIRMASS MOVING
IN, AND THOSE WESTERLY WINDS/BETTER MIXING HAVING A BETTER
CHANCE TO TAP INTO THOSE. FORECAST HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...FAR SE AREAS WHICH STILL
HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S. THESE FORECAST TEMPS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA, RESULT
IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S.
AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORS, DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
FROM NOON TO 6PM FOR THE AREA WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA (3HRS OF
RH AT/LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS 25+ MPH)...PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 6 AND
ALONG/WEST OF HWY 281. WE HAVE HAD DAYS IN THE PAST WHERE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WERE HIGH CONFIDENCE/A SLAM-DUNK TYPE OF
SCENARIO...TODAY IS NOT ONE OF THOSE DAYS. THIS IS A MORE
MARGINAL SET-UP...IT BEING JANUARY/SHORTER PEAK- HEATING TIME
COULD PLAY A PART IN REACHING THAT 3HR TIME FRAME...AND THE
TIMING OF PEAK WIND GUSTS (EARLIER AFTN, BEFORE A WEAK BOUNDARY
SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA) MAY NOT MATCH UP PERFECTLY WITH THE
LOWEST RH VALUES (MID-LATE AFTN)...BUT FELT CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST WARRANTED THE WARNING ISSUANCE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH REMAINS DRY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WHICH STARTS OFF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY NORTHWESTERLY...BUT WEAKENS WITH TIME,
TURNING MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER CA CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK THROUGH THE DESERT
SW.
AT THE SURFACE, WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 12Z TUESDAY, ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL DRAPED TO OUR
SW, AND FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COULD BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST
HIGHS, MORE SOLIDLY IN THE MID-50S (POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IN THE
FAR SE, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW COVER IS LEFT)...WITH MODELS
SHOWING DEWPOINTS NOT BEING AS LOW AS TODAY, POSSIBLY KEEPING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DOWN. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHTER, AT TIMES MORE VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY...A TOUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 50. BOTH
DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THURSDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND THE
RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST. THE BIG
QUESTION CONTINUES TO LIE WITH WHAT THE EXACT TRACK OF THE MAIN
UPPER LOW WILL BE ONCE IT MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND ONTO
THE PLAINS. BY THE TIME 12Z THURSDAY ROLLS AROUND, MODELS AREN'T
IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE LOW ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG
THE EASTERN CO/NM BORDER AREA. MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH
WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPTIATION CAN PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTH
TO AT LEAST CLIP PART OF OUR KS COUNTIES...AND SO WHILE NOT
LIKELY, STILL DO HAVE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE BETWEEN 06-12Z
THURSDAY MORNING. THINGS TEND TO SLOW DOWN AS WE GET CLOSER...SO
WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE FORECAST TOTALLY DRY OUT
PRIOR TO 12Z. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, MODELS AREN'T SHOWING
A LOT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...MORE OF A PUSH LOOKS
TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 00-12Z FRIDAY, AND
CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MODELS AT THIS POINT STICKING WITH THAT TREND OF THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BEING SOUTH OF I-70. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TO IRON OUT...THE LATEST DET. EC IS ACTUALLY ON THE
QUICKER SIDE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY VS THE
GFS...BUT BOTH HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY FRIDAY EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM NOT HAVING A NOTABLE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH...AND AT LEAST AT THIS POINT STILL
LEAN MORE TOWARD A COLD-RAIN TYPE OF EVENT VS A BUNCH OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW (NOT SAYING THERE WON'T BE ANY SNOW). LATEST
RUN OF ENSEMBLE DATA (BOTH GFS/EC) IS STILL SHOWING OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITIES OF NOTABLE SNOW...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OR
MORE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-30
PERCENT RANGE. AS FAR AS LIQUID AMOUNTS GO...THOSE SAME
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW PROBABILITIES OF 0.1 INCH OR MORE EXCEEDING
60 PERCENT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT
STILL NOTABLE PROBABILITIES OF 0.5 INCH OR MORE. NEED THESE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME HIGHS TO
HOPEFULLY THAW OUT SOME OF THE FROZEN GROUND.
THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ON INTO NEXT MONDAY IS
DRY...WITH MODELS SHOWING A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE THU/FRI SYSTEM AND A CURRENT LACK OF ANY NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS ON THU/FRI ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S/50S, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THOSE ARE LOW WITH THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL IN THE AREA...HIGHS FOR SAT ARE AGAIN IN THE 40S/50S,
WITH MORE SOLIDLY 50S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
TODAY'S TAF FORECAST WILL MOSTLY BE A WIND FORECAST AS A SFC
TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NE AND EXTENDS INTO IA. THE
WINDS WILL START OFF GUSTING INTO THE MID-20S THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE SFC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN KS TOMORROW MORNING THE WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER CO/WY INFLUENCES
THE REGION.
GA FRIENDS:
LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT WARMER TEMPS AND VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL PROBABLY
BRING AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND MAYBE SOME ICING ISSUES IN THE
MID-LEVELS, BUT IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039-040-
046-047-060>062-072>074.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...BEDA
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