279
FXUS63 KGID 280002
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
602 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
..UPDATE TO END THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY-FRIDAY, WITH THE OVERALL
BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE THURSDAY EVENING-
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COLD AIR IS LACKING, SO EXPECT MAINLY RAIN.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS MILD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STARTING TO INCREASE. AS A RESULT,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE COMING TO AN END FOR THE DAY
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HAVE PANNED OUT PRETTY CLOSE TO
EXPECTATIONS THUS FAR. IF ANYTHING, ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO
EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING A TOUCH SOUTH/EAST, BUT FOR AREAS
LIKE AURORA AND YORK, RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MORE HIT AND
MISS AND BRIEF. NOT SURPRISINGLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE
OVERACHIEVED IN SPOTS WITH W/SW ZONES CREEPING INTO THE UPPER
50S LAST HOUR. EVEN YORK (KJYR) HAS WARMED INTO THE MID 50S. IN
GENERAL, DRIER, WARMER, AND WINDIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
THE RIGHT WAY TO GO TODAY, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE PARTS
ON DAYS WITH SUNNY SKIES, BARE/DRY GROUND, AND DEEP WESTERLY
(CHINOOK) LOW LEVEL FLOW. SAME WILL LIKELY BE SAID FOR TUESDAY
WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS MAY
TURN A BIT MORE NWRLY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT MUCH WARMER
START TO THE DAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS EVEN WARMER THAN
TODAY. THINK SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT 60F, ESP.
SW/W/N OF THE TRI-CITIES. DEW POINTS WON'T BE QUITE AS LOW AS
TODAY (TEENS/20S VS SINGLE DIGITS), BUT WITH THE WARM TEMPS,
SHOULD STILL SEE SOME SPOTS DIP INTO THE NEAR-CRITICAL RANGE OF
LOW TO MID 20S RHS FOR THE AFTN. APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR AN OVERLAP OF WNW/NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH AND RHS 20-25%
WILL BE ALONG AND N OF HWY 92. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE AREA
OF FAVORABLE OVERLAP EXPANDS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, BUT THINK
WE'LL MOSTLY AVOID WIDESPREAD SUB-20% RHS. AS SUCH, HAVE
INTRODUCED "NEAR CRITICAL" WORDING TO THE HWO FOR TUESDAY
INSTEAD OF ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE
MAINLY 10-15 MPH FOR AREAS FURTHER S.
WEDNESDAY WON'T BE QUITE AS WARM THANKS TO WEAKER MIXING AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS, BUT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S AND WEAKER WINDS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LATEST THINKING REGARDING UPCOMING SYSTEM
LATER IN THE WEEK. DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE SW CONUS TODAY
WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD THRU MIDWEEK, THEN EJECT ONTO THE
PLAINS SOMETIME THU INTO THU NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE PRIMARY H5 LOW TRACK ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER
THU/THU NIGHT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO ON FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE QPF OVER FAR SE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, OR
EVEN FURTHER S/SE. SHOWERS WILL TRY TO SPREAD N EARLY THU AM
WITH THE INITIAL WAVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION, BUT LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE KS/NE STATE LINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED PCPN WILL LIKELY BE WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND THU
NIGHT, BUT AGAIN, WITH SUCH A SRLY TRACK OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL
LOW, THE BRUNT OF THIS COULD FOCUS MORE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
AND SE NEBRASKA. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO LOWER CHANCES ALONG AND
ESP N OF THE NE/KS STATE LINE, AND DETERMINISTIC EC RUNS ARE NOW
KEEPING MOST AREAS N OF I-80 COMPLETELY DRY. 12Z EPS
PROBABILITIES HAVE TIGHTENED UP ON THE N/NW FLANK OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND ARE NOW ONLY 10-30% FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE
FOR THE TRI-CITIES. THIS SYSTEM HAS SIMILAR "VIBES" TO THE
WINTER STORM WE HAD EARLIER THIS YEAR (BUT WITH LESS COLD AIR),
WITH THE PRIMARY QPF AXIS BEING FROM AROUND BELOIT TO HEBRON, S
AND E. ALSO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOULD BE
LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC
COOLING TO BE JUST ENOUGH (AIDED BY THE NOCTURNAL TIMING) TO
SWITCH SOME RAIN OVER TO WET SNOW WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE THE
HIGHEST, BUT DON'T THINK THIS WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH. 12Z EPS
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW >1" ARE ONLY ~10% IN OUR FAR SE.
THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
DRY...WITH MODELS SHOWING A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE THU/FRI SYSTEM AND A CURRENT LACK OF ANY NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS ON THU/FRI ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S/50S, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THOSE ARE LOW WITH THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL IN THE AREA...HIGHS FOR SAT ARE AGAIN IN THE 40S/50S,
WITH MORE SOLIDLY 50S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING BY (NEAR 7KFT) THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
SETTLED DOWN THIS EVENING...AND THEY SHOULD BOTTOM OUT NEAR 5KTS
OUT OF THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TUESDAY, EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST TO BETWEEN 20-25KTS FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...ROSSI
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...ROSSI
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