557
FXUS63 KGID 281126
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
526 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY ARE SIMILAR TO MONDAY. DRY,
PLENTY OF SUN, ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS, BREEZY WEST WINDS. HIGHS
TODAY ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 50S, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOWER 60S. DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN MONDAY, FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FALL MORE INTO THE NEAR-
CRITICAL CATEGORY...AND AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORS, OPTED TO
NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING, BUT DAY CREW WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON CONDITIONS AS THEY EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY. AT THIS POINT MODELS
STILL SUPPORT THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE BEING LIQUID/RAIN, BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS ESPECIALLY ON THE FRINGES, AS THEY
MAY AT TIMES BE PRETTY CLOSE TO FREEZING. ALSO WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW MODELS TREND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF
INSTABILITY/FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.
- IF ANYTHING, RECENT MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH THE END
OF PRECIPITATION (FORECAST IS NOW DRY AFTER 18Z FRIDAY)...AND
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
CURRENTLY...
BEEN ANOTHER VERY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...HAD A SMALL
BATCH OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLIDE THROUGH EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT, BUT SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR. ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...SET UP BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING OVER ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW
PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC, AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE AROUND 5-10 MPH...AS ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE LIES ROUGHLY
FROM THE PAC NW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. EVEN WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL LIGHT WINDS, A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE
HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS OVERNIGHT WARMER THAN 24HRS AGO...WITH
3AM READINGS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S FOR MOST SPOTS (COMPARED TO
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST 24HRS AGO).
TODAY THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL, NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF TODAY ON THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH REMAINS
DRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT
THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WEAKENING/TURNING
MORE WESTERLY TODAY/THIS EVENING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE
EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH, AND BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN IT AND THE APPROACHING LOW OVER THE DESERT SW MOVES
INTO THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT IN THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY WITH TIME, AS THAT UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST
ACROSS AZ AND INTO NM.
EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY MORE INTO WEDNESDAY, EXPECTING AT
LEAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW
TO START CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH INTO OUR
SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR TODAY...AT THE SURFACE, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, WINDS
LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO MORE WESTERLY IN NATURE THIS MORNING,
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THAT SURFACE LOW SINKS
SOUTHEAST...AND WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNNY SKIES, SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL NE COUNTIES. AS WE GET CLOSER TO MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH (CLOSER TO 30 FOR SOME)
WILL BE POSSIBLE...CLOSER TO 20 MPH FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE
WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE, A WARMER START TO THE DAY, SIMILAR
MONDAY'S WESTERLY WINDS...EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS (NORMAL IS MID 30S-LOW 40S)...WITH MID-UPPER 50S
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW LOW 60S). FAR SERN AREAS WITH THE LINGERING SNOW
COVER WILL END UP A BIT COOLER. ONE DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY IS WITH DEWPOINTS, MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THEM NOT ENDING UP AS LOW (ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES). AS A RESULT, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FAR W AND NW LOCATIONS...WITH LOW 20S
TO CLOSER TO 30 FURTHER SE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT ONLY SPOTTY, BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...SO WITH THAT AND
COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORS, HELD OFF ON ANY RED FLAG WARNING.
INTO WEDNESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHTER, VARIABLE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THEN TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT SFC HIGH.
THE LACK OF MIXING AND MODELS SHOWING THE AIR MASS POTENTIALLY
JUST A BIT COOLER LOOKS TO KEEP HIGHS DOWN A TOUCH...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S FOR MOST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK REMAINS WITH
THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND ONTO THE
PLAINS...AND THE ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STILL
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT, SO CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDING ENE
ACROSS NM, AND BY 12Z THURSDAY LOOKS TO END UP ROUGHLY AROUND
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CO/KS BORDER AREA. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH RECENT RUNS SHOWING A LOBE OF
ENERGY/INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/TEMP ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LOW POTENTIALLY SWINGING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA POTENTIALLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS THE OVERNIGHT GOES ON, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY GROWS, AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ACTIVITY WANES/BECOMES MORE SCATTERED AS IT PUSHES NORTH.
AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THURSDAY-FRIDAY, MODELS THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAD BEEN PRETTY STEADY WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION PASSING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MORE RECENT RUNS ARE NOT AS SOLID IN THAT
EVOLUTION. THIS RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT SOME
POINT THURSDAY MORNING IS A NEWER TREND COMPARED TO 24HRS
AGO...AS IS THE TREND THAT THIS LULL COULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW HASN'T
CHANGED NOTABLY...STILL LOOKING TO SLIDE EAST ROUGHLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF KS...BUT MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING THAT THE
BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
DEVELOPS ON THE N AND BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY ONLY AT BEST
CLIP FAR E-SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. 24 HRS AGO, THE
TIMING AMONG DET. MODELS HAD PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST...MORE RECENT RUNS HAVE
THINGS SHUTTING DOWN FOR OUR AREA AS MUCH AS 12 HRS SOONER, NBM
POPS END AT 18Z FRIDAY NOW.
AS FAR AS PRECIPTIATION TYPE GOES FOR THIS EVENT, MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THERE BEING AN OVERALL LACK OF COLDER AIR FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...KEEPING IT MAINLY A LIQUID/RAIN
EVENT. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ESPECIALLY ON THE
FRINGES OF PRECIP AREAS, SOME COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD
RESULT IN THINGS BEING AT LEAST BRIEFLY MORE FREEZING RAIN VS
RAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT THINKING THAT WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION,
NOT THE RULE. DET. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...GEFS SHOWS A LESS THAN 10
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 1+ INCH OF SNOW, ECMWF ENS. HANGING ONTO
A 10-30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 1+ INCH OF SHOW ACROSS AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NE/KS STATE LINE. LOOKING AT LIQUID
AMOUNTS...AS NOTED BY THE DAY CREW, BOTH GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT OF PROBABILITIES OF BOTH 0.1+ AND
0.5+ AMOUNTS...HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF 0.5+ (50 PERCENT OR
MORE) ARE INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO FAR ESE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
ONE THING NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST, BUT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT
OF THE QUESTION, IS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE SPC
DAY 3 GENERAL THUNDER AREA DOES INCLUDE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
WINDS ON THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH (WHICH IS NOT OVERLY WELL
ORGANIZED AS IT DOES SO)...TURNING MORE WESTERLY, THEN NORTHERLY
WITH TIME. MODELS SHOWING THE SFC LOW BECOMING A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED AS IT PASSES FURTHER EAST, BRINGING A REINFORCING PUSH
OF NNW WINDS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE BREEZY DURING THAT PERIOD (NOT OVERLY STRONG, GUSTS
20-25MPH), DIMINISHING FURTHER INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS NOT
HIGH WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES WITH PRECIPTIATION
TIMING/COVERAGE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE NBM HIGHS IN THE
40S-50S.
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK REMAINS DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEING MORE ZONAL IN NATURE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS THU-FRI SYSTEM. OVERALL MILD HIGHS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR SAT-SUN, WITH MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT STARTING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...DROPPING HIGHS FOR
MON/TUE BACK INTO THE 30S-40S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH FEW/IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS REMAIN WESTERLY, INCREASING IN SPEED BY LATE
MORNING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 25
MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT, SPEEDS DIMINISHING BACK CLOSER TO 10 MPH, WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
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