409
FXUS63 KGID 290526
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1126 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR NEXT MAIN FOCUS IS ON WHAT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY-RAIN "EVENT"
WED NIGHT-THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM, ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS
HAVE TRENDED DOWN SOME (PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH?).
- ALTHOUGH OF CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, WE MIGHT HAVE TO WATCH
FOR A "SNEAKY" CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE THURS NIGHT AS PRECIP
DEPARTS (ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE
MINIMAL).
- BEYOND EARLY FRI AM: THE REMAINDER OF OUR 7-DAY FORECAST
REMAINS DRY (AND WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE). TEMPERATURE-
WISE, WE REMAIN SEASONABLY-MILD (HIGHS MAINLY 40S/50S) THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY (PERHAPS SUNDAY), BEFORE COLDER (BUT NOT
OVERLY-COLD) AIR RETURNS BY MON-TUES (HIGHS MAINLY 30S).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
- PRIMARY 7-DAY FORECAST CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES POSSIBLE
WEAKNESSES:
WILL ADMIT OFF THE TOP THAT WENT INTO THIS SHIFT WITHOUT MUCH
"RECENT PERSONAL HISTORY" WITH FORECAST TRENDS OF THE UPCOMING
WED NIGHT-THURS NIGHT SYSTEM, BUT AS BEST I CAN TELL, THE MAIN
CHANGES/POTENTIAL FORECAST WEAKNESSES ARE:
1) ALTHOUGH EXPECTED TOTAL PRECIPITATION (ALMOST ENTIRELY RAIN)
AMOUNTS FOR WED NIGHT-THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM HAVE TRENDED DOWN
A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS, VARIOUS MODELS (INCLUDING NAM/ECMWF)
SUGGEST WE MAY STILL BE AIMING TOO HIGH. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS,
WE'RE CALLING FOR A RANGE FROM 0.10-0.25" IN THE NORTHWEST 1/3
OF OUR FORECAST AREA (CWA) TO AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75" IN OUR
SOUTHEAST 1/3. WHILE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS THIS HIGH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, SUSPECT THAT MUCH OF OUR AREA COULD BE HEADING TOWARD
RECEIVING ONLY AROUND HALF OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST IF SOME
OF THE "LEANER" MODELS COME TO FRUITION.
2) AS FOR SOME OF THE MORE QUESTIONABLE/UNCERTAIN ASPECTS OF
THE UPCOMING SYSTEM, HERE ARE A FEW THAT COME TO MIND:
- ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST, A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURS
DAYTIME AS UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MOST-UNSTABLE
CAPE/INSTABILITY WORK INTO OUR CWA.
- EVEN IF SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS VERIFY
(THOSE INTO THE 0.50-0.75" RANGE), WE AREN'T OVERLY-CONCERNED
WITH FLOODING AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
FROST IN THE GROUND, THE SEASONABLE-WARMTH OF THESE PAST FEW
DAYS (ALONG WITH WED) SHOULD AT LEAST THAW OUT THE TOP FEW
INCHES OF THE SURFACE, ALLOWING RAIN TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY
SOAK IN WITH SOME RUNOFF POSSIBLE, BUT NOT ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE (OF GREATEST CONCERN WOULD PROBABLY BE THE
MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA WHERE OVERALL-COLDER RECENT TEMPS AND
STUBBORN/CRUSTY SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN MORE NOTICEABLE
PONDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
- ALTHOUGH PROBABLY CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF/FLEETING OF LIGHT
ICING ON THE VERY LEADING EDGE OF RAIN AS IT PUSHES NORTH LATE
WED NIGHT-THURS AM, FELT THIS THREAT WAS MARGINAL ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO REMOVE ANY FORMAL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATION FROM OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST.
- ALSO AS CURRENTLY NOT REFLECTED IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST,
WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A WARY EYE ON LATE THURS NIGHT-EARLY FRI
AM, AS SOME MODELS (INCLUDING LATEST NAM) ARE HINTING THAT
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO TURN A COLD RAIN OVER TO SOME WET/SLUSHY SNOW. IF
THIS HAPPENS, WE'VE STILL GOT 48+ HOURS TO GET OUR FORECAST
GOING IN THAT DIRECTION, BECAUSE RIGHT NOW ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS NOT REALLY A "THING" IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MOVING ON TO A TEMPERATURE NOTE IN THE LONGER-TERM:
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS IS REASONABLY-HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, BUT DEFINITELY TAKES A DOWNTURN BY SUNDAY-MONDAY, AS
THE GFS IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE/FASTER BRINGING IN OUR NEXT
SOMEWHAT-STRONGER COLD FRONT. REALISTICALLY, HIGHS ACROSS AT
LEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA SUNDAY COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM
40S-60S...AND PREDICTABLY...OUR MULTI-MODEL BLEND THAT PRIMARILY
POPULATES OUR LONGER-TERM FORECAST IS AIMING "DOWN THE MIDDLE"
WITH MOST AREAS 50S.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
IN CLASSIC FASHION, TODAY'S THE COMBO OF FULL SUNSHINE AND
MODERATELY-BREEZY (GUSTS COMMONLY 20-30 MPH) WESTERLY
(DOWNSLOPE) WINDS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY "OVERACHIEVE"
AND DEWPOINTS/RH TO CRASH DOWNWARD FARTHER AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES/PERCENTAGE POINTS THAN ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURE-WISE,
MOST OF OUR CWA HAS ACTUALLY TOUCHED 60 (MARKING THE FIRST TIME
SINCE EARLY-DECEMBER FOR MOST PLACES). SOME PLACES IN OUR
WESTERN HALF EVEN FLIRTED WITH MID-60S. NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE
MAIN COOLER EXCEPTION HAS BEEN OVER THE STUBBORN "SHALLOW
GLACIER CENTERED OVER MITCHELL COUNTY KS WHERE AT LAST CHECK THE
BELOIT AREA AT LEAST MANAGED LOW 50S (ALTHOUGH THEIR WARMEST
TEMPS IN SEVERAL WEEKS).
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY REVEAL THAT OUR CENTRAL PLAINS REGION RESIDES
IN A BENIGN WEATHER REGIME, ALONG THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S., AND STILL
WELL EAST/DOWNSTREAM OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW CHURNING OVER
NORTHWEST AZ.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
WITH THE HEART OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ONLY PROGRESSING SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT (FROM
WESTERN AZ TO EASTERN AZ), OUR SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH GUARANTEED DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY FROM AFTERNOON SPEEDS, THEY WILL NOT TRULY
GO CALM EITHER, WITH NORTHWESTERLY SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 5-10 MPH
COMMON THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED A FEW
PLACES COULD SLIP SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN FORECAST IN THE DRY
AIRMASS, BUT THE BREEZES SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM "TANKING" TOO,
AND HAVE MOST AREAS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 21-26 RANGE.
- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME:
ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY, THIS DAY GETS MY VOTE AS
"BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK", WITH VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE
DIRECTION BREEZES IN THE MORNING, INCREASING TO ONLY AROUND
SUSTAINED 10 MPH/GUSTS 15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A
MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS, THE DAY AS A WHOLE
WILL AVERAGE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. IF ANYTHING, NUDGED UP HIGHS
VERY SLIGHTLY, WITH MOST AREAS AIMED INTO THE MID-50S.
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY DAYTIME:
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS, THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW
WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS CENTERING IT OVER SOUTHWESTERN KS BY SUNSET THURSDAY.
INITIALLY WED NIGHT, AN AREA OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL WORK NORTHWARD INTO OUR
CWA, BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 DOWN INTO KS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS RAIN COULD FLIRT WITH FREEZING, BUT
THINK INCREASING CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE
THIS A MINIMAL CONCERN. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, MOST OF OUR CWA
WILL PROBABLY SEE A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES, DRIVEN IN LARGE PART
BY AN UPPER DRY SLOT. THAT BEING SAID, AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW WEAK STORMS, AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG PROBABLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT (FOG IS
CURRENTLY NOT IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST). UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUDS,
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER, WITH MOST OF OUR CWA MID-UPPER 40S AT
BEST.
- THURS NIGHT-EARLY FRI AM:
VARIOUS SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER SYSTEM WILL MAKE A FAIRLY STEADY DEPARTURE, REACHING WELL
INTO NORTHERN MO BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR OUR
CWA AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS IS WHETHER AN ORGANIZED BAND OF CHILLY
RAIN IS ABLE TO FORM ON ITS BACKSIDE, AND IF SO, COULD IT
DYNAMICALLY COOL TO "SNEAKY" SLUSHY SNOWFALL THAT MIGHT CATCH
FOLKS OFF GUARD. WITH THIS POSSIBILITY STILL 48-60 HOURS OUT, WE
FORTUNATELY STILL HAVE TIME TO ASSESS, BUT FOR NOW OUR OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS MAINLY STEERING CLEAR OF OVERNIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.
- FRIDAY-SUNDAY (THE BASICS):
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY, ANY PRECIP (WHETHER IT BE RAIN OR SNOW)
SHOULD BE DEPARTED TO OUR EAST, PAVING THE WAY FOR WHAT SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DRY DAYS UNDER QUASI-ZONAL (WEST-EAST) FLOW ALOFT. AS
FOR TEMPS, NO BIG CHANGES HERE, WITH FRIDAY AIMED MAINLY UPPER
40S-LOW 50S, SAT JUMPING WELL INTO THE MID 50S-LOW 60S, AND THEN
SUNDAY (AS MENTIONED ABOVE) A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
- MONDAY-TUESDAY (THE BASICS):
QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
(MAINLY WHETHER HIGHS WILL BE 30S OR 40S), BUT OUR FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD MOSTLY 30S FOR NOW (ESPECIALLY NEB ZONES). BY
TUESDAY, EVEN THE ECMWF LATCHES ONTO COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON THE
SCENE, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (AT LEAST BY DAY 7 STANDARDS)
IN HIGHS IN THE 30S. OBVIOUSLY STILL NOT TOO COLD BY EARLY-FEB
STANDARDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...BETTER CHANCES OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ANY PRECIP LOOK TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD. EXPECTING MOST OF THE
PERIOD TO AGAIN BE LARGELY FREE OF ANY CLOUD COVER...THE FINAL
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WILL START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
CREEPING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS THE REST OF TONIGHT REMAIN
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, BUT LIGHT AROUND 5-10 MPH. BY
MID-MORNING, AND LINGERING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH WILL BRING MORE VARIABLE WINDS...WITH
WINDS THEN SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT HIGH
LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, REMAINING ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AROUND 10 MPH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP
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