272
FXUS63 KGID 291124
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
524 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY TODAY. EXPECTING PLENTY OF
SUN, LIGHT WINDS, ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 50S.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING ON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL
LOOKING TO BE RAIN.
- FIRST ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS TO SWING NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA MID-EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES NORTH.
- THERE MAY BE AN OVERALL LACK OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...SOME CONCERN IT MAY END UP BEING
MORE OF A DREARY, CLOUDY/DRIZZLY KIND OF DAY VS NOTABLE RAIN
ACCUMULATION.
- A STRONGER BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH
EXACT WHERE THIS TAKES PLACE. MODELS VARY FROM HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CLIPPING E-SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TO OUR AREA GETTING VERY LITTLE. ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THIS BAND THAT ENOUGH COOLING COULD OCCUR TO ALLOW
FOR SOME SWITCH-OVER TO SNOW.
- FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR FRIDAY ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
BY SATURDAY ARE BACK IN THE 50S-LOW 60S, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES IT AT SOME POINT SUNDAY, DROPPING HIGHS EARLY NEXT
WEEK BACK INTO THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
CURRENTLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
AGAIN LITTLE/NO CLOUD COVER AFFECTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING ALOFT...UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE SHOWING WEAKER,
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...DRIVEN BY A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RIDGE AXIS SITS BETWEEN VERY BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH AZ. AT THE SURFACE, THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS ON THE WEAKER SIDE, WITH MAINLY DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO OUR WEST. WINDS REMAIN WEST- NORTHWESTERLY, ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AROUND 5-10 MPH. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 24HRS AGO...WITH MOST LOCATIONS CURRENTLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 20S.
TODAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
SHOWING FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME TODAY...AS THE FEATURE WE'LL BE TURNING
OUR ATTENTION TO, THAT DESERT SW LOW, CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...BY THIS EVENING IT LOOKS TO HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO NM.
EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO START
PUSHING NORTH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. UNLIKE THE PAST TWO
DAYS, NOT LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS FOR TODAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON, EXPECTING WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE
SIDE...TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME LATER TODAY AS THAT
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST...SPEEDS LOOKING TO TOP OUT
AROUND 10 MPH. WHILE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF MIXING POTENTIAL, TODAY IS STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL (NORMAL IS MID 30S-LOW 40S)...EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID-50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING AND ON THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT, MAIN
FOCUS TURNS TO THAT DESERT SW UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE GENERAL TRACK.
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW
MAKING A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD TURN, AND BY 12Z THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE KS/CO
BORDER. THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS WELL SW OF THE FORECAST
AREA, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SWINGING NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS A SOMEWHAT NARROW, SCATTERED SWATH OF
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH.
OVERALL BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE FOCUSED ROUGHLY IN THE 03-09Z
TIMEFRAME...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. STILL EXPECTING THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE TO REMAIN LIQUID...SFC TEMPS SHOULD
MODERATE IF NOT RISE AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD/WITH THE
PRECIPITATION...BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE, SFC TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME BRIEF
FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR. IF IT DID, CURRENTLY THINK THAT IT'D
BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT RESULT IN ANY NOTABLE IMPACT. IT IS ALSO
STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THAT SWATH...WITH SOME MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY.
EARLY THURSDAY AM, MODELS SHOWING PRECIP DIMINISHING AS THAT
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...BUT ALSO DRIVEN BY A
NOTABLE NORTHWARD PUNCH OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON THURSDAY, BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
DOES THERE END UP BEING. MODELS ARE DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
THAT THERE MAY END UP NOT BEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...INSTEAD BEING MORE OF A LOW LEVEL
STRATUS/DRIZZLY KIND OF DAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY REMAINS LIQUID/RAIN, WITH HIGHS FOR MOST CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO GET INTO THE 40S...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW FAR
INTO THE 40S IT GETS IS NOT OVERLY HIGH.
AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...STILL PLENTY OF
DETAILS TO IRON OUT...BUT THE GENERAL PICTURE CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINING ON ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS, MOVING WELL INTO MO BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. WITH TIME,
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MID-UPPER LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/DEFORMATION ZONE STRENGTHENING ON THE
NNW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BIG QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE
THAT OCCURS. SOME MODELS SHOW IT OCCURRING SOON ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST IMPACT ESE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST, OTHERS (LIKE THE 00Z
DET. ECMWF) SHOW IT LARGELY MISSING US/SETTING UP JUST TO OUR
EAST. ENSEMBLE DATA ALSO HAS TRENDED THAT WAY, WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF 0.5+" OF LIQUID ACCUMULATION SHIFTING A TOUCH
EAST. PROBABILITIES OF 0.1+" OF 50+ PERCENT ARE STILL FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD...THOUGH MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SO STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST HERE...CURRENT FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE AT
LEAST A QUARTER-INCH OF LIQUID ROUGHLY ALONG/SE OF A GENOA-
HASTINGS- PHILLIPSBURG LINE...BUT IF MODELS STICK WITH THAT MORE
EASTWARD FOCUS, TOTALS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED.
ALONG WITH QUESTIONS WITH THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF THAT
STRENGTHENING OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...THERE IS AT LEAST A
LITTLE QUESTION WITH PRECIPTIATION TYPE. AT THIS POINT, MOST
AGREEMENT REMAINS WITH RAIN BEING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
TYPE...BUT SOME MODELS (NAM SIDE OF THINGS) SUGGEST THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO OCCUR TO SWITCH A
NARROW SWATH OVER TO SNOW, WITH SOME ACCUMULATION (COULD OCCUR
IF SNOW RATES WERE HEAVY ENOUGH OVERCOME TEMPS...AS SFC TEMPS
STILL LOOK TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR ACCUMULATION). WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN A PUSH OF NW
WINDS, BUT AT THIS POINT THOSE WINDS DO NO LOOK TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MODELS TODAY TREND
WITH PRECIPITATION, ALSO WILL HAVE MORE HI-RES DATA TO LOOK AT.
AS FAR AS THE END OF PRECIPITATION...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THINGS WINDING DOWN BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WITH THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY CURRENTLY DRY.
EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO DIMINISH...AND WHILE IT WAS NEVER AN
OVERLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE, MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S TO RETURN TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
(ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF).
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND ON INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK IS STILL DRY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY'S SYSTEM...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN'T OVERLY HIGH, ESPECIALLY SUN-ON, WHERE
THE GFS HINTS AT SOME QPF CLIPPING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S...AND WHILE CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS
SIMILAR, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THAT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDING EAST NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA...BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TIMING. AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS ON THE
ECMWF/SLOWER SIDE OF THINGS...WITH GFS ON THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE/QUICKER SIDE, WHICH IF THAT ENDS UP PANNING OUT WOULD
MEAN HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE CURRENTLY TOO WARM. THE COOLDOWN
CONTINUES INTO MON-TUE...WITH 30S-40S FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
30S FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED JAN 29 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT,
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY AND HOW
FAR NORTH IT GETS BEFORE DIMINISHING...THUS THE PROB30 GROUP VS
PREVAILING. ALSO POSSIBLE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE WORKING
THEIR WAY IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
LIGHT, PEAKING AROUND 10 MPH. DIRECTION WILL BE MORE VARIABLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY FOR THE DURATION
OF THE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
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