245
FXUS63 KGID 300452
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1052 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BY FAR THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER (BUT ADMITTEDLY PROBABLY NOT
VERY "HIGH IMPACT") OCCURS RIGHT AWAY DURING THE FIRST 36
HOURS, AS VARIOUS PARTS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA (CWA) WILL SEE
MAINLY ISOLATED-SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (MAYBE EVEN A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER?), AT LEAST PATCHY FOG (MAINLY SOUTH) AND
MAYBE A TOUCH OF BRIEF FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY NORTH).
- ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS WITH NARROW BANDS/SPLOTCHES OF BRIEF
HEAVIER RAIN COULD BE AN EXCEPTION, OVERALL RAIN TOTALS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD, WITH MOST
OF OUR CWA NOW FORECAST TO RECEIVE NO MORE THAN 0.10-0.30
(SOME AREAS LESS AND PROBABLY ONLY A FEW MORE).
- NOT THAT IT WAS A MAJOR CONCERN TO BEGIN WITH, BUT IT APPEARS
THAT ANY THREAT FOR A POTENTIAL NARROW BAND OF SLUSHY SNOW ON
THE "BACKSIDE" OF THE DEPARTING AREA OF PRECIP LATE THURS
NIGHT-EARLY FRI AM HAS TRENDED EVEN LOWER, AND IN FACT WE HAVE
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION WHATSOEVER DEPICTED IN OUR OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: THE NEXT WEEK AS A WHOLE WILL CLEARLY
AVERAGE OUT ABOVE NORMAL (PARTICULARLY FRI-SUN), WITH A
CHILLIER (BUT CERTAINLY NOT OVERLY-COLD FOR EARLY-FEB!)
AIRMASS ARRIVING MON-WED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BEST AGREEMENT FOR AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AFTER 3AM. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ATOP
COLDER GROUND TEMPS NEAR EXISTING SNOW COVER, AMIDST LIGHT E/SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW, SHOULD MAKE FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR NW/N THE THREAT WILL EXTEND, BUT
IF IT DOES GET INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, IT WOULDN'T BE UNTIL
CLOSER TO DAWN, SO WILL LET INCOMING MID SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS
AND EXPAND, IF NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 436 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
-- PRIMARY 7-DAY FORECAST CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE
COMMENTARY (MAINLY ON THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM):
- BIG PICTURE WISE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORECAST "BRAIN
POWER"/ATTENTION TODAY WAS SPENT ON THESE FIRST 36 HOURS,
WHICH DESPITE FEATURING THE PASSAGE OF A SEASONABLY-STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
ALSO APPEARS TO PACK A SURPRISING "LACK OF IMPACT" FOR OUR
CWA. QUITE SIMPLY, THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO FEATURE
ACCUMULATING SNOW/WIDESPREAD ICING/STRONG WINDS OR EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALL OF WHICH ARE EITHER REGULARLY OR RARELY A
POSSIBILITY AROUND HERE...EVEN IN MID-WINTER.
- BY FAR THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM OUR AM "FORECAST
PACKAGE" WAS A CONTINUED WHITTLING AWAY AT EXPECTED RAINFALL
TOTALS. AS TOUCHED ON ABOVE, MOST AREAS WILL BE LUCKY TO
EXCEED 0.10-0.20", BUT AS IS ALMOST ALWAYS THE CASE WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (AND ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY IN PLAY), THERE WILL PROBABLY BE LOCALIZED
EXCEPTIONS THAT PERHAPS MANAGE TO PICK UP AROUND 0.50" OR
SLIGHTLY MORE.
- FORTUNATELY, AND DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF FROST STILL IN THE
GROUND, THE WARMTH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ALLOWED THE TOP
FEW INCHES OF SOIL TO START THAWING A BIT, SO UNLESS RAINFALL
EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS OR HAPPENS TO COME DOWN FAIRLY HARD IN
LOCALIZED AREAS FOR A TIME, WE ARE NOT VERY CONCERNED WITH
"TRUE" FLOODING...ONLY SOME ENHANCED MINOR PONDING POTENTIAL.
- THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE A FEW LOWER-CONFIDENCE (BOTH IN
TERMS OF OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE) POTENTIAL HAZARDS THAT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY IGNORED, BOTH OF WHICH ARE PRIMARILY
FOCUSED VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM: 1) AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG (POSSIBLY LOCALIZED DENSE?), PARTICULARLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE KS BORDER...2) A VERY LOW (LIKELY NO HIGHER THAN 20%)
CHANCE OF LIGHT/BRIEF FREEZING RAIN MAINLY WITHIN NEBRASKA
COUNTIES NORTH OF I-80. WHILE NEITHER OF THESE POTENTIAL
HAZARDS ARE OF HIGH-CONFIDENCE-IN-OCCURRENCE, THEY ARE ALSO
CLOSE ENOUGH IN TIME THAT THEY COULD NOT BE "IGNORED" FOR OUR
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID), WHICH NOW CONTAINS
MENTION OF POTENTIAL FOG, LIGHT ICING AND SPOTTY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS (OBVIOUSLY A RARITY FOR LATE JAN...BUT ALSO NOT
A "SURE THING" EITHER).
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (VERY HEAVILY FOCUSED
FIRST 36 HOURS):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
AS LATE JANUARY DAYS GO, THIS ONE RANKED VERY HIGH ON THE
"PLEASANT SPECTRUM" FOR THIS FORECASTER. ALTHOUGH THE VERY
LEADING EDGE OF INVADING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAS STARTED CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR KS ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
OUR CWA HAS ENJOYED WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE. FOLLOWING A MORNING
WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS, THIS AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SPEEDS...BUT STILL ONLY MAINLY SUSTAINED AROUND 10
MPH/SPORADIC GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF HTE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST IN NEBRASKA COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST IN OUR KS ZONES.
ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT AS YESTERDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AT LEAST MEET, IF NOT VERY-SLIGHTLY EXCEED OUR
EARLIER- FORECAST EXPECTATIONS MOST AREAS, WITH MOST PLACES
TOPPING OUT 55-58, AND THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING THE STILL
STUBBORNLY-SNOW- COVERED AREAS OF MITCHELL COUNTY KS IN OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST, WHERE IT AT LEAST MADE UPPER 40S.
IN THE BIG PICTURE ALOFT, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A LARGE-SCALE/CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER, WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT
TURNING INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AS IT APPROACHES.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
IN THE BIG PICTURE ALOFT, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL MARCH EAST-NORTHEAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CO/KS BORDER BY SUNRISE THURS.
PRE-MIDNIGHT: THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL SURELY STAY
DRY, BUT MID LEVEL (AND EVENTUALLY LOWER LEVEL) CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE A STEADY MARCH NORTHWARD OUT OF KS. THE EXCEPTION WHERE
PRE- MIDNIGHT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE RESIDES MAINLY IN OUR KS
ZONES, WHERE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD START CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTH
MAINLY AFTER 9 PM.
BEYOND MIDNIGHT: THIS IS WHEN AT LEAST LIMITED WEATHER CONCERNS
ENTER THE PICTURE. STARTING WITH SOMETHING OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE,
AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS (PERHAPS A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OWING TO AS MUCH AS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE/INSTABILITY) WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH OUT OF
KS INTO OUR NEBRASKA ZONES...PERHAPS EVEN SPREADING NORTH OF
I-80 BY SUNRISE, BUT WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGHER CHANCES FOCUSING
WITHIN COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80. THIS IS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
BECOME KEY, AS TONIGHT'S HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS NOT VERY
STRAIGHTFORWARD. WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS (THAT SEE CLOUDS ARRIVE
FIRST) WILL DROP NO LOWER THAN THE MID-30S (ABOVE FREEZING),
ESPECIALLY OUR COUNTIES NORTH OF I-80 COULD REMAIN CLEAR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TEMPS TO DROP PERHAPS AS LOW AS 27-32 DEGREES BEFORE
STABILIZING (OR EVEN RISING) WITH THE ARRIVAL OF INCREASING
CLOUDS. THE PROBLEM WOULD BE IF ANY SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS DO
MANAGE TO GET INTO AREAS THAT DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, THEN
WE COULD HAVE AT LEAST VERY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN/LIGHT ICING FOR THE AM COMMUTE. AGAIN, THIS IS OF VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE "PLAIN"
NON-FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT (IF ANYTHING), BUT IT'S JUST ENOUGH
OF A THREAT THAT HAVE INTRODUCED TO HWO.
THE OTHER LATE NIGHT CONCERN IS WHETHER ANY FOG MANAGES TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF NORTHWARD-LIFTING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS,
WHICH IF WERE TO OCCUR APPEARS MOST FAVORED IN OUR KS ZONES. FOR
NOW, HAVE SIMPLY INTRODUCED BASIC "PATCHY FOG" TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING FOR POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY TO
DROP TO 1 MILE OR LOWER IN OUR HWO.
- THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT:
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS, THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL
TEMPORARILY "STALL OUT" OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST KS DURING THE
DAY, BEFORE THEN ACCELERATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
NORTHEAST MO BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
RIGHT OFF THE BAT THURS MORNING, WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE FOG ISSUES (WHICH COULD CREEP UP TO ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 6
IN NEBRASKA...BUT MAINLY PRE-NOON), AND FOR THAT LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPOTTY LIGHT ICING IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
(MAINLY PRIOR TO 9 AM).
MOVING ON TO BROADER PRECIP EXPECTATIONS, LOCALLY, OUR OVERALL-
SURPRISING LACK OF MEANINGFUL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL (FOR SUCH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM) APPEARS TO MAINLY BE
TIED TO UNFAVORABLE POSITIONING OF A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. THAT
BEING SAID, AT LEAST SPOTTY (IF NOT LOCALIZED MORE CONCENTRATED)
BANDS/SPLOTCHES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALMOST
ANYWHERE AT ALMOST ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THURS
NIGHT, BEFORE THE BACK (NORTHWEST) END OF ANY POTENTIALLY
ORGANIZED PRECIP SHIELD GRADUALLY DEPARTS OUR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ZONES LATE THURS NIGHT. EVEN AT THIS FAIRLY "LATE IN THE GAME"
FORECAST TIME FRAME, MODELS ARE ADMITTEDLY FAIRLY DIVIDED OVER
WHETHER PARTS OF OUR AREA PICK UP DECENT RAIN TOTALS IN EXCESS
OF 0.25", OR WHETHER MOST AREAS STAY MOSTLY DRY. IF ANYTHING,
THE VERY LATEST 18Z HRRR INDICATES THAT A NARROW, GENERALLY
WEST-EAST ORIENTED ZONE POTENTIALLY CUTTING THROUGH THE TRI
CITIES AREA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL LATE THURS
AFTERNOON-EVENING, BUT AGAIN, THIS SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF "WETTER
OUTLIER) COMPARED TO MOST MODELS, AND THUS WHY OUR OFFICIAL RAIN
CHANCES (POPS) ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY NO HIGHER THAN 30-50%. AS
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY DAYTIME, IT CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT (AGAIN ON A WEAK/SPOTTY BASIS), BUT OPTED NOT
TO INCLUDE A FORMAL FORECAST MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL DEFER
TO LATER FORECASTS TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
GETTING INTO THE LATER NIGHT HOURS, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
CONCERNS ABOUT ENOUGH DYNAMIC/INTERNAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE
ALOFT WITHIN THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO ALLOW THE BACK END OF
ANY DEPARTING RAIN BAND TO CHANGE OVER TO SLUSHY/WET SNOW.
HOWEVER, LATEST HIGHER-RES MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
DOWNPLAYING THIS AND KEEPING PRECIP TYPE AS MOSTLY/ENTIRELY
RAIN, SO SNOW IS CURRENTLY NOT CONSIDERED A LIKELY HAZARD.
TOUCHING BRIEFLY ON TEMPERATURES/WINDS FOR THURS-THURS NIGHT,
NUDGED DOWN HIGHS SLIGHTLY (NO MAINLY MID 40S), AND MAKE LITTLE
TO CHANGE TO LOWS, WITH MOST AREAS EVENTUALLY BOTTOMING OUT
UPPER 20S-LOW 30S AND NOT DROPPING NOTABLY UNTIL AFTER
PRECIP/CLOUDS DEPART. WIND-WISE, THE LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE
LOW WILL KEEP SPEEDS DURING THE DAY LIGHT (MAINLY 5-10 MPH AT
MOST, TURNING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME), WHILE THURS NIGHT WILL
FEATURE A SLIGHT UPTICK TO SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH/GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH.
- FRIDAY-FRI NIGHT:
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, HIGH CONFIDENCE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS AS OUR FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS BACK OUT TO MORE ZONAL (WEST-
EAST). UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP A FEW
DEGREES, NOW RANGING NEAR-50 NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST.
IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY FRI AM, BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY SWING AROUND
TO SOUTHERLY FRI NIGHT, KEEPING LOWS UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
MOST AREAS.
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
OVERALL, A PRETTY DARN NICE/MILD WEEKEND TO KICK OFF FEBRUARY!
WE HAVE HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS AIMED WELL INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOW
60S. IT COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY (BUT PROBABLY NOT OVERLY-
WINDY), BUT EVEN SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST LOW-END FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE WARMTH.
- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME
REMAINS PRECIP-FREE (OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST CURRENTLY REFLECTS
THIS), BUT BOTH ECMWF/GFS HINT THAT AT LEAST SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
COULD BE LURKING SOMEWHERE IN OUR GENERAL AREA AT TIMES, SO WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. TEMPERATURE-WISE, AS IT TYPICAL OF
THE EXTENDED PERIODS, UNCERTAINTY DOES GROW, AS THERE ARE AT
LEAST MODEST DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH SO WE COOL
DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT SLATED TO PASS THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW NO BIG CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS, WITH HIGHS MON MAINLY UPPER 30S-MID 40S, AND TUES-WED
MOST AREAS SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S. CERTAINLY NOTHING OF TRULY
ARCTIC ORIGIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LATEST TAFS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS - WHICH ARE FOR LESSER
CHANCES OF IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DETAILS BELOW:
TONIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS AND GENTLY SRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, PARTICULARLY TOWARDS
08-10Z, EXPECT SCAT SHWRS TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, AS WELL. AS THE
SHWRS ARRIVE, APPEARS CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LEVELS, AND PERHAPS
VSBYS AS WELL IN THE STRONGER CORES. BELIEVE BOTH TERMINALS
WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST A TRACE BY 12Z, BUT COVERAGE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AND NEAR-IFR VSBYS REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN, SO KEPT THESE CONDITIONS AS A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL GO LGT AND VRBL BY DAWN. CONFIDENCE: CIGS/VSBYS - LOW
TO MEDIUM, WIND - HIGH.
THURSDAY: NOW APPEARS THAT THE INITIAL SURGE OF SHWRS WILL
DISSIPATE PRETTY QUICKLY AROUND, OR JUST AFTER, SUNRISE...WITH A
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NOW FAVORED FROM MID-LATE AM
THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. THIS MAKES WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT IFR
CONDITIONS (CIGS <1000FT) LESS LIKELY, SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO
MVFR AS 1500-2000FT IS NOW MORE FAVORED. DURING THE AFTN, ESP.
MID TO LATE AFTN, SOME GUIDANCE REDEVELOPS A RELATIVELY
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHWRS WHICH COULD FORCE CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS, BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND THIS BEING THE
LAST 6 HRS OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WENT WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.
LGT AND VRBL WINDS WILL TURN NWRLY DURING THE AFTN. CONFIDENCE:
LOW TO MEDIUM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ006-
007-017>019.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...THIES
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