882
FXUS63 KGID 301744
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1144 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY RAIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. VERY LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING AND RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT.
- WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN TURNING COOLER (BUT NOT
EXCESSIVELY COLD) NEXT WEEK.
- THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS PRETTY
LOW THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PHILLIPS COUNTY IN KS
AND FROM HARLAN COUNTY TO THAYER COUNTY IN NEBRASKA. HEBRON
AIRPORT HAS ALREADY DIPPED TO 1 MILE VISIBILITY, AND NEAR-TERM
MODELS SHOW FOG CONTINUING TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
AS OF 230AM, RADAR SHOWS THE BULK OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG/EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF
THESE SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE AS
THESE SHOWERS (AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER) MOVE IN. MANY
STATIONS FURTHER SOUTH GAINED 5+ DEGREES PER HOUR AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVED IN. AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATION IS
UNLIKELY. THAT SAID, SOME ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT (MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS).
DENSE FOG IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AND MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS (AND
POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA) THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR
NOW, THERE ARE NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP BY AROUND
SUNRISE. MOST OF THE DAYTIME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, WITH
ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...A SOLID 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.
THIS EVENING, AN UPTICK IN RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. SOME LOCATIONS (MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA) COULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" OF RAIN...BUT THE
MAJORITY WILL SEE LESS THAN 0.10". THE MOST PERSISTENT AND
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A
FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN AS PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE TONIGHT,
BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
USHER IN DRIER AIR, AND ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
WELL BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 50S AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY MAY SEE A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER,
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S (AND MAYBE
EVEN LOW 60S). SUNDAY TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN, DUE TO
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE 60S, BUT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 50 DEGREES IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THE EARLIER SIDE.
SOME POST-FRONTAL FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, BUT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH.
COOLER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH OFF/ON LOW-END
(10-20%) CHANCES FOR SNOW. THAT SAID, NONE OF THESE SNOW CHANCES
LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY CONCERNING. THE 01Z NBM ONLY HAS A
20-30% FOR 1" OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU JAN 30 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR STRATUS HAS IMPROVED AT THE TERMINALS OVER THE PAST HOUR
WITH MVFR STRATUS NOW PREVAILING. A VERY LIGHT BAND OF -RA CAN
BE SEEN LIFTING NORTH OVER KEAR...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
BRIEF...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THERE AFTER 30/19Z. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, PUSHING SOUTH AND ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THIS LINE OF SHOWERS TRACKS
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT SOME MARGINAL LLWS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE...WITH NEAR 40KTS OF WIND OUT OF THE NORTH AT 9
HUNDRED FEET. THIS WS SHOULD IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO NEAR
20 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ083>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...ROSSI
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