975
FXUS63 KGID 030540
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1140 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES (40-90%) FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35-45MPH AND GUSTS TO 60MPH.
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT. WHILE
AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN, ANY FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (30-60%) FOR WINTER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 50S, AND NEAR THE
60S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA, GUSTING 25-30MPH. STEADY MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS ALSO ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
REMAINING 30%, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM BECOMING
ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL CRITERIA. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WINDS GUSTING 15-20MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
A RECORD WARM LOW IS POSSIBLE AT GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS ON
MONDAY, SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAIL. PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE AREA AND OVERCAST SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S, BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM REACHING
THE 60S. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY DURING THE DAY, GUSTING
20-25MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN REGARDS TO HOW
MUCH DRY AIR WITHIN THE DRYSLOT OF THE LOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CURRENTLY THIS LOOKS TO MOST IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WHERE THEY REMAIN NEARLY TO COMPLETELY FREE OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER NORTH/EAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING,
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO
EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-
45MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60MPH ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM
TUESDAY THROUGH 12PM WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOW IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO FULLY WRAP
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION AROUND ITSELF. THIS IS THE AREA OF HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH A RANGE OF OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS.
A FASTER SCENARIO AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF AND NAM SEES THIS
PROCESS FINISH BY THE MID AFTERNOON, WITH A BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2" OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IN THIS SCENARIO. A SLOWER SCENARIO AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z
GFS SEES THIS PROCESS FINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH A BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE HASTINGS
FORECAST AREA. THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS BAND WILL BE CONTINUE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED, AND SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY AID IN
NARROWING DOWN WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP. SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SNOW TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS, THE HIGHEST
IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO BE FROM FALLING SNOWFALL
COINCIDING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SNOW FALLING WITH WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 60MPH WILL RESULT IN NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW WILL BE ON THE HEAVIER
SIDE, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOWFALL, BUT IT
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WHERE HEAVIER SNOW
ACCUMULATES.
TO SUMMARIZE/THE MAIN TAKEAWAY FOR TUESDAY: STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 60MPH. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH ANY FALLING SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL RESULT IN NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
THURSDAY ONWARDS...
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-25MPH. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WINTER
WEATHER RETURN TO THE ARE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD
IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW, BUT AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
AN AREA OF IFR STRATUS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE EXPANDING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS
STRATUS TO SET IN AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, LIKELY NOT IMPROVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, LLWS IS EVIDENT ON THE
VWP...AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS
MONDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT SET IN UNTIL AFTER
04/00Z...GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY, WITH SURFACE
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH GRADUALLY SHIFTING AND BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
REGARDING POTENTIAL RECORD-WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY:
THANKS TO STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND INCREASING CLOUDS, DAILY
LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNUSUALLY-MILD MONDAY... POTENTIALLY
TYING OR SETTING NEW RECORDS FOR MARCH 3RD. FOLLOWING ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS, THE 2
SITES FOR WHICH WE ISSUE OFFICIAL RECORD EVENT REPORTS
(RERGRI/RERHSI).
* DENOTES A RECORD CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN *
FOR GRAND ISLAND (CENTRAL NEBRASKA REGIONAL AIRPORT):
MONDAY, MARCH 3RD
*WARM LOW TEMP RECORD: 42 IN 1920 (FORECAST IS 42)*
FOR HASTINGS (MUNICIPAL AIRPORT):
MONDAY, MARCH 3RD
*WARM LOW TEMP RECORD: 42 IN 1974 (FORECAST IS 42)*
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...ROSSI
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
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