163
FXUS63 KGID 031142
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
542 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES (40-90%) FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING PRECEDING THE MAIN EVENT...MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183.
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45MPH AND GUSTS TO 60MPH+.
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT. WHILE AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN, ANY
FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT, A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO RECEIVE AROUND 1" OF TOTAL SNOWFALL.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (30-60%) FOR WINTER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A NICE WARMING TREND FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY (WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING
STREAMING NORTHWARD AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CLOUD
COVER, COMBINED WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS COULD MAKE FOR A RECORD WARM START TO THE DAY (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
OF A WARM-UP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTH - COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD THE ANTICIPATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST - TO RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN MODEL
SIGNATURES AND HOW SHALLOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN SOUNDING
DATA, DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE PRECIPITATION TYPE
THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EXTREME WEST AND CLOSER TO THE
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CROSS THE ROCKIES
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. THIS RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY, AND A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR WIND GUSTS 60+MPH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND BRINGS A
TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH THE TRANSITION TO SNOW, BLOWING SNOW
AND NEAR-BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP - ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH
ARE THE MOST FAVORED AREAS TO RECEIVE UP TO ONE INCH OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL. AS A RESULT, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS - DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF EVEN A LITTLE SNOWFALL AND 60+MPH WIND GUSTS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT REACH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS EXISTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 3 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND - WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING NEXT MONDAY IN THE 70S!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MVFR TO NEAR IFR STRATUS HAS FILLED IN NORTH ACROSS THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...AND EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME -DZ DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH -DZ THEN PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS THROUGHOUT. MUCH STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2025
POTENTIAL RECORD-WARM LOWS/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY:
THANKS TO STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND INCREASING CLOUDS, DAILY
LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE UNUSUALLY-MILD
THIS MORNING...POTENTIALLY TYING OR SETTING NEW RECORDS FOR
MARCH 3RD. WHILE UNLIKELY, TEMPERATURES COULD FALL BELOW THIS
MORNINGS LOWS BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, SO OFFICIAL RECORDS WILL
NOT BE UPDATED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT EVEN IF THIS MORNINGS LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD.
BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS
AIRPORTS, THE 2 SITES FOR WHICH WE ISSUE OFFICIAL RECORD EVENT
REPORTS (RERGRI/RERHSI).
FOR GRAND ISLAND (CENTRAL NEBRASKA REGIONAL AIRPORT):
MONDAY, MARCH 3RD
*WARM LOW TEMP RECORD: 42 IN 1920 (FORECAST IS 42)*
FOR HASTINGS (MUNICIPAL AIRPORT):
MONDAY, MARCH 3RD
*WARM LOW TEMP RECORD: 42 IN 1974 (FORECAST IS 42)*
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ039>041.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ048-049-063-064-076-077-086-087.
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
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