722
FXUS63 KGID 031806
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1206 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES (40-90%) FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING PRECEDING THE MAIN EVENT...MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183.
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45MPH AND GUSTS TO 60MPH+.
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT. WHILE AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN, ANY
FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT, A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO RECEIVE AROUND 1" OF TOTAL SNOWFALL.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (30-60%) FOR WINTER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A NICE WARMING TREND FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY (WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING
STREAMING NORTHWARD AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CLOUD
COVER, COMBINED WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS COULD MAKE FOR A RECORD WARM START TO THE DAY (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
OF A WARM-UP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTH - COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD THE ANTICIPATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST - TO RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN MODEL
SIGNATURES AND HOW SHALLOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN SOUNDING
DATA, DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE PRECIPITATION TYPE
THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EXTREME WEST AND CLOSER TO THE
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CROSS THE ROCKIES
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. THIS RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY, AND A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR WIND GUSTS 60+MPH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND BRINGS A
TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH THE TRANSITION TO SNOW, BLOWING SNOW
AND NEAR-BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP - ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH
ARE THE MOST FAVORED AREAS TO RECEIVE UP TO ONE INCH OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL. AS A RESULT, DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS - DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF EVEN A LITTLE SNOWFALL AND 60+MPH WIND GUSTS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT REACH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS EXISTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 3 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND - WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING NEXT MONDAY IN THE 70S!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/PRECIPITATION:
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE (IF NOT THE
ENTIRE) PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB-VFR CEILING (RANGING FROM MVFR
TO LIFR), WITH ESPECIALLY MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD
LIKELY FEATURING SUB-VFR VISIBILITY AS WELL IN AT LEAST LIGHT
FOG (MAINLY MVFR BUT COULD EASILY BE IFR OR WORSE AT LEAST
BRIEFLY). PRECIPITATION-WISE, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER OR
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING, LIGHT
(NON-FREEZING) DRIZZLE SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE ONCE ANY PRECIPITATION BEGINS (MAINLY 05Z ONWARD). PLEASE
NOTE THAT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
BEYOND THIS VALID PERIOD.
- WINDS:
THE MAJORITY OF THIS VALID PERIOD WILL FEATURE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS (ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING). THAT BEING SAID, WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE MODESTLY-BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH (SUSTAINED
15-20KT/GUSTS 20-25KT). HOWEVER, SPEEDS WILL SLACKEN THIS
EVENING-OVERNIGHT (SUSTAINED CLOSER TO 10KT) AS DIRECTION
STEADILY TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY.
FINALLY, LATE IN THE PERIOD (15Z ONWARD) THE INITIAL STAGES OF
INCREASING NORTHERLIES WILL KICK IN, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 20KT/GUSTS 25-30KT (AGAIN, TRENDING CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
JUST BEYOND THIS VALID PERIOD).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ039>041.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ048-049-063-064-076-077-086-087.
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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