402
FXUS63 KGID 032303
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
503 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP INITIALLY THESE NEXT 36
(BIG/DYNAMIC UPPER SYSTEM BRINGING PRIMARY THREAT OF INTENSE
WINDS AND AT LEAST MINIMAL FALLING/BLOWING SNOW, WITH
SECONDARY/INITIAL THREATS OF SPOTTY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
FOG MAINLY TONIGHT).
- OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (CWA) GOES UNDER A HIGH WIND WARNING
AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT VARIOUS POINTS BETWEEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADDRESS THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRIMARY THREATS.
- ONCE THE WINDS DIE DOWN WEDNESDAY WE CATCH AT LEAST A 24-36
HOUR BREAK IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
- STILL PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING TO DO, BUT ANOTHER (ALBEIT LESS
POWERFUL) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES MAINLY THURSDAY EVENING-
FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING WHAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW (PERHAPS UP TO A FEW INCHES?) TO MAINLY
OUR NEBRASKA CWA.
- OUR GOING FORECAST TURNS LESS ACTIVE (NO MENTIONABLE PRECIP
CHANCES AT THIS TIME) FRI EVENING-MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT FRIGID BY ANY MEANS (ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO A FEW WEEKS AGO), WE WILL BE A BIT ON THE COOLER
SIDE THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY 30S-40S THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN WARMING UP TO MORE SO 50-60S THIS WEEKEND, AND
MAYBE SOME 70S BY MONDAY. OTHER THAN TONIGHT, MOST UPCOMING
NIGHTS WILL BOTTOM OUT 20S-LOW 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 503 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
-- PRIMARY 7-DAY FORECAST MESSAGES/CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES:
- THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY (STRONG SYSTEM #1):
- BASIC WEATHER OVERVIEW:
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CHURNING
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
MAINLY KS/SOUTHERN NE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, BEFORE
GRADUALLY DEPARTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. AT THE
SURFACE, A POWERFUL LOW (CURRENTLY AROUND 990 MILLIBARS OVER
SOUTHEAST CO) WILL REACH CENTRAL KS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY, THEN
INTENSIFY FURTHER TO AROUND 985 MILLIBARS BY THE TIME IT REACHES
NORTHERN MO BY SUNSET TUESDAY.
- "SNEAKY OVERNIGHT CONCERNS TONIGHT:
1) SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS: WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA IS
NOT UNDER AN OFFICIAL SPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5), HERE
LOCALLY WE ARE SEEING AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE 9PM-1AM TIME FRAME,
AS A PLUME OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG
SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTH. SHOULD STORMS OCCUR, WE CANNOT RULE
OUT SPOTTY INSTANCES OF HAIL UP TO NICKEL/POSSIBLY QUARTER SIZE.
2) FOG: WHILE NO FORMAL ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME,
IT'S BECOMING INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH AT LEAST LOCALIZED DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
AND AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 MILE OR LESS LIKELY. SOMETHING FOR
NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN CASE IT BECOMES "ADVISORY
WORTHY".
OTHERWISE, FOR MOST AREAS, THIS WILL BE A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT
WITH MOST PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR CONSISTING OF NON-
FREEZING DRIZZLE (OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH SUNRISE UPPER 30S-MID
40S).
- TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY AM:
- HIGH WINDS:
WE HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHAT SHOULD BE A HIGHER-END (NOT
"TYPICAL NEBRASKA/KANSAS WINDY") HIGH WIND SITUATION AS INTENSE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERTAKE OUR ENTIRE AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. IF
ANYTHING, WE'VE BUMPED UP FORECAST SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS, WITH MANY HOURS OF SUSTAINED 30-40+ MPH/GUSTS 55-65
MPH. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE AT LEAST
SPOTTY/MINOR DAMAGE AND SEND LOOSE OBJECTS SPRAWLING. WHILE
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE BY MID-LATE MORNING NORTH AND WEST,
THE OFFICIAL HIGH WIND WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT NOON AND
CONTINUES THROUGH WED AM..ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK TUES
AFTERNOON-EVENING BEFORE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING WED AM.
- SNOW/BLIZZARD POTENTIAL:
GETTING RIGHT TO THE POINT REGARDING HEADLINES, AFTER
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WE DECIDED TO TAKE
SOMEWHAT OF A "MIDDLE GROUND" BY ISSUING A CWA-WIDE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY (OFFICIALLY IN EFFECT 3 PM- 3 AM, ALTHOUGH SNOW
WILL PROBABLY START CLOSER TO 5-6 PM IN OUR FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES AND WILL LIKELY END MORE SO 9 PM-MIDNIGHT MOST ALL
AREAS).
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, VARIOUS MODELS OFFER
WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL, BUT
WITH THE OVERALL-CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS AVERAGING OUT TO
LITTLE-TO-NOTHING FOR MOST PLACES (MAINLY LESS THAN 1"). OF
GREATEST CONCERN REMAINS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES (MAINLY EAST OF
HWY 281), WHERE SOME MODELS SHOW CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR
PERHAPS AT LEAST A FEW INCHES WET/STICKY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. IN THE END, DECIDED THAT BOTH THE DURATION OF
SNOW AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION (MAINLY JUST A FEW HOURS) AND OVERALL
AMOUNTS (AGAIN, MAINLY UNDER 1" MOST AREAS) WAS JUST NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A BLIZZARD WARNING OR WINTER STORM WARNING AT THIS
TIME. AS A RESULT, WE OPTED FOR A CWA-WIDE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THAT CLEARLY ACKNOWLEDGES POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. IF LATER MODEL RUNS COME IN MORE AGGRESSIVE, WE
ABSOLUTELY CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR
SOME AREAS.
ONCE SNOW MOVES OUT AND THE WINDS DIE DOWN, WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-WED NIGHT WILL SEEM COMPARATIVELY TRANQUIL TO THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO MAINLY UPPER 30S-MID
40S AND WED NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S.
-- THURSDAY-FRIDAY (SYSTEM #2):
WILL FLAT OUT ADMIT GAVE THIS SYSTEM VERY LITTLE "BRAIN POWER"
TODAY WITH SO MUCH GOING ON IN THE SHORTER TERM. HOWEVER, GLANCE
AT LATEST ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTS ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL...
MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURS AFTERNOON BUT MORE SO THURSDAY EVENING-
FRIDAY MORNING AS A LESS-INTENSE, PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ZIPS EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. VERY EARLY SUGGESTIONS THAT
MAINLY PARTS OF OUR NEBRASKA ZONES COULD PICK UP 1-3" WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND FORTUNATELY WINDS DON'T LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THIS ONE.
-- FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY:
OUR GOING FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE WITH WARMING TEMPS (MAYBE
70S BY MONDAY?), AS WE RESIDE UNDER MAINLY BENIGN WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/PRECIPITATION:
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE (IF NOT THE
ENTIRE) PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUB-VFR CEILING (RANGING FROM MVFR
TO LIFR), WITH ESPECIALLY MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD
LIKELY FEATURING SUB-VFR VISIBILITY AS WELL IN AT LEAST LIGHT
FOG (MAINLY MVFR BUT COULD EASILY BE IFR OR WORSE AT LEAST
BRIEFLY). PRECIPITATION-WISE, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER OR
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING, LIGHT
(NON-FREEZING) DRIZZLE SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE ONCE ANY PRECIPITATION BEGINS (MAINLY 05Z ONWARD). PLEASE
NOTE THAT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
BEYOND THIS VALID PERIOD.
- WINDS:
THE MAJORITY OF THIS VALID PERIOD WILL FEATURE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS (ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING). THAT BEING SAID, WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE MODESTLY-BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH (SUSTAINED
15-20KT/GUSTS 20-25KT). HOWEVER, SPEEDS WILL SLACKEN THIS
EVENING-OVERNIGHT (SUSTAINED CLOSER TO 10KT) AS DIRECTION
STEADILY TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY.
FINALLY, LATE IN THE PERIOD (15Z ONWARD) THE INITIAL STAGES OF
INCREASING NORTHERLIES WILL KICK IN, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 20KT/GUSTS 25-30KT (AGAIN, TRENDING CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
JUST BEYOND THIS VALID PERIOD).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page