585
FXUS63 KGID 041207
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
607 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. OCCASIONAL
VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 10 AM.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE, WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
DIMES BEING THE GREATEST CONCERN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
81, WITH SMALL HAIL AGAIN BEING THE MAIN CONCERN (ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BY THIS TIME).
- WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CRANK UP ACROSS THE REGION BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING INTO EFFECT AT NOON
CST. WINDS GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH STILL APPEAR LIKELY (ESPECIALLY
FROM 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT).
- WHILE OVERALL SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH
THIS FIRST SYSTEM, GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA, AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON, NEAR-BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME IN BLOWING SNOW.
- SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT, BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 60 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND NOON CST
WEDNESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM/COLD FRONT CROSSES THE PLAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH, WITH THE FOCUS AIMED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION APPEAR POSSIBLE
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM.
- QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER 70S BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL HAIL OBSERVED IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW
EVIDENT MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF PEA SIZED HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS ACTIVITY, LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY NEAR-DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 OF A MILE IN
SPOTS. RATHER THAN MUDDY UP THE HEADLINES WITH A BRIEF DENSE FOG
ADVISORY, HAVE OPTED TO COVER THE FOG BOTH IN THE FORECAST AND
HWO INSTEAD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OVERALL, A PLETHORA OF WEATHER TO CHOOSE FROM ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL, BUT THUNDERSTORMS,
SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, FOG AND NEAR-BLIZZARD LIKELY CONDITIONS
WILL ALL LIKELY IMPACT AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT SAID, THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM HAS
CHANGED VERY LITTLE, AND CONTINUED WITH THE SAME INHERITED
HEADLINES AND HAZARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH MESO-SCALE (HRRR/RAP) GUIDANCE LARGELY IN LINE WITH
WHAT WAS EXPECTED, PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING AND TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
ONCE THE IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM PUSHES EAST ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
SEVERE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE COME TO AND END WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM NOT ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LARGELY BE ASSOCIATED ALONG AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT,
PROVIDING STEADY LIGHT PRECIP AND MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THAT SAID, THE AIRMASS
WILL BE COOLER, AND THAT WILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE (THERE IS
ROUGHLY A 30-50% CHANCE OF 3+ INCHES OF SNOW FOCUSED NORTH OF
I-80) AND ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT STICK AROUND LONG AS
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR 50 BY SATURDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
GENERALLY POOR (LIFR-MVFR) CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND BR/FG IS PERSISTING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AND LIKELY WILL LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST 04/15Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS BY 04/18-20Z
AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.
AS LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME -RASN OR EVEN BLOWING SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH AN EVENTUAL BRIEF SWITCHOVER TO
SNOW. FOR THE TIME BEING KEPT THE -RASN MIX AS PREVALENT PRECIP
AS -SN WILL LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND WILL ALSO LIKELY BE AS
THE PRECIP IS WINDING DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
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