817
FXUS63 KGID 050016
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 55-65 MPH WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING-EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- STRONG WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 12PM
WEDNESDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE (30-85%) FOR WINTER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURN THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY: WINDS GUSTING 55-65MPH COMBINED WITH BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
STRONG WINDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 50-65MPH. THE OVERALL STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH GUSTS OF 60-65+MPH.
PRECIPITATION IS STEADILY FILLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN IS SLOWLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW (WITH SLEET
BRIEFLY IN-BETWEEN) WHERE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING (MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW W OF HIGHWAY 281). SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO
ACCUMULATE AT FIRST DUE TO THE WARM/WET GROUND, BUT HEAVIER
RATES OF SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE. THE
HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
281 AND 283. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW ARE
LEADING TO VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SCATTERED BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE AND DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NEAR-BLIZZARD/BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS, THOUGH THE DURATION OF THESE BANDS LOOKS
TO REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT, KEEPING THE AREA FROM REACHING TRUE
BLIZZARD CRITERIA. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS KEPT IN PLACE
DUE TO THE SHORT/LIMITED DURATION OF BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS.
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT,
EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN
FORECAST SNOWFALL, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL. THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO SEE 1-2" OF SNOW ARE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN (W OF HWY 183) AND FAR EASTERN (ALONG/E OF
HWY 81) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF A BAND SITS OVER A
LOCATION LONG ENOUGH TO REACH 2", SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD RESULT IN IMPACTS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TO SUM UP/REITERATE:
WINDS GUSTING 55-65MPH COMBINED WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY...
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY,
GUSTING 35-50MPH. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON,
WHICH COVERS THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
STEADILY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS FALLING BELOW
20MPH BY SUNSET. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S COMBINED WITH
GUSTY/BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY FEELING DAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. AS THE LOW EMERGES
OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL SIT OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND
IN THE 40S NORTH OF IT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
GUSTING 25-30MPH.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER THURSDAY
NIGHT, MORE WIDESPREAD AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVE
INTO THE AREA. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL CHANCE COMPLETELY OVER TO SNOW
AFTER SUNSET, WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE LOW, THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW FAVOR
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. THIS LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW COMPARED TO TODAY/NIGHT, WITH THE GEFS
AND EPS GIVING A 50-80% CHANCE FOR 3" OF SNOW NORTH OF I-80. SNOW
WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT, AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S.
SATURDAY ONWARDS...
A GRADUAL WARM UP IS IN STORE STARTING THIS WEEKEND, AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
VERY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE OVERALL-BIGGEST
STORY THROUGH THE PERIOD (GUSTS 40-50+ KT ESPECIALLY THE FIRST
12 HOURS), ALTHOUGH THEY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS AN
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL MVFR THROUGH MAINLY THESE FIRST 12 HOURS,
BEFORE A RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OCCURS FOR MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF (WED DAYTIME) BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION-WISE, TRANSIENT BANDS OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE STORY FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE
ENDING.
- ADDITIONAL WIND/VISIBILITY DETAILS:
THE OVERALL-STRONGEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AWAY
THIS EVENING (COMMONLY SUSTAINED 30-35KT/GUSTS 50+KT, WHICH
COMBINED WITH PASSING BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCASIONALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AS LOW AS IFR (THIS IS HANDLED WITH A TEMPO
GROUP THROUGH 03Z). THROUGH THE MORNING AND DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY, A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR,
WITH GUSTS BACKING OFF TO UNDER 40KT BY 15-18Z, AND UNDER 30KT
BY 18-21Z. A MORE PRONOUNCED DROP-OFF WILL OCCUR BY THE VERY-END
OF THE PERIOD (NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN TAFS).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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