568
FXUS63 KGID 051151
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL BE COMING DOWN GRADUALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY, WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING (FOR GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH)
CONTINUING THROUGH NOON CST. THIS MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS, TIME-
WISE, SO THE END TIME MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. EVEN SO, IT WILL REMAIN WINDY ALL DAY.
- LOTS OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING, BUT AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FURTHER EAST.
- THE NEXT CHANCE (30-85%) FOR WINTER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE ABOUT ABOUT A 30%
CHANCE FOR 4+ INCHES OF SNOW IN ORD, AND ABOUT A 25% CHANCE
FOR 2+ INCHES OF SNOW AS YOU WORK FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS GRAND
ISLAND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURN THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK - WHICH MEANS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD
RETURN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND LIKELY TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
THINGS HAVE BEEN QUIETING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WINDS ARE
SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. THAT SAID, WE ARE STILL SEEING 60+
MPH WIND GUSTS IN SPOTS AS OF 4 AM (61 MPH AT GRI), AND HAVE
DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH NOON CST FOR
THE TIME BEING. LOOKING AT SATELLITE, LOTS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS
CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT THERE ARE VISIBLE
BREAKS IN THIS STRATUS, SO EXPECT AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY START
TO THE DAY WITH HOPEFULLY A FULLY SUNNY AFTERNOON! WITH SOME
FRESH SNOWCOVER (ALBEIT THIN) AND A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW, TEMPERATURES COULD BE A STRUGGLE IN SPOTS, BUT
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW (CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST) TO THEN CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY,
GRADUALLY SPREADING ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
SOME VERY SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP RETURNING AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, WITH THE COLD FRONT
RAPIDLY CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AND THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME (AT LEAST) MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. WITH THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE, IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO START THINKING ABOUT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT IF THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS CONSISTENT LATER
TODAY, A HEADLINE FOR SNOWFALL MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.
COOLER AIR (30S) SHOULD THEN LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, BEFORE A NOTABLE WARMING TREND BEGINS
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ALOFT. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL AREA
HIGH AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WHEN THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO HELP BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSH IT EASTWARD.
WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER, HOWEVER, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL RETURN, WITH POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 60S/70S, RH VALUES FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT, AND
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MVFR STRATUS CAN BE SEEN CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER NEAR KEAR THAN KGRI AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AT LEAST
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE/FRONT...EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SNOW BACK TO MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AM.
OTHERWISE...WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY...AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER ABOUT
06/02Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...ROSSI
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
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