324
FXUS63 KGID 060001
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
601 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW, IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- THE MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DAYTIME WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA.
- AT THIS TIME, STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TRACE NEAR
THE STATE LINE TO AROUND AND OVER 3 INCHES IN VALLEY AND
GREELEY COUNTIES.
- THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
AFTER FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE GULF
COAST WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS FROM TEXAS TO NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS
ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT ARE NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER
TODAY WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. A
STRONG SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STRENGTHENING OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE (UP TO A 70% CHANCE) ON THURSDAY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LIFT. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START IN THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND MAY BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW, DEPENDING ON
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALL RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OVER KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ACROSS NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
(UP TO NEAR 95%) WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FALL FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE FINISHED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED
TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CHANGE BY TOMORROW
NIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
TRACE TO 0.1 INCHES AROUND THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER TO AROUND AND
OVER 3 INCHES ACROSS VALLEY AND GREELEY COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
30S TO MID 40S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE LOW 40S
TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S WHILE THOSE ON MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH SOME 60S IN
THE FAR NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY BUT ONLY BY A FEW
DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- BRIEF OVERVIEW:
OVERALL-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR BRIEF PASSING LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY DAYTIME (NOT REFLECTED IN
TAFS). WINDS LIGHT MOST OF PERIOD, BUT BECOMING A LITTLE BREEZY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- CEILING/PRECIPITATION DETAILS:
AFTER STARTING OUT CLEAR, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INITIALLY HIGH-
LEVEL, BUT THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY DAYTIME. ALTHOUGH A LOWER-END VFR CEILING
(PERHAPS AS LOW AS AROUND 4-5KT FT.) CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT SOME
POINT MAINLY 15-21Z, LOWEST CEILING SHOULD MAINLY PREVAIL MORE
SO 6-10K FT. DURING THIS SAME TIME OF OVERALL-LOWEST CEILINGS
THURSDAY, A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS COULD PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. CONSIDERED INTRODUCING THIS POTENTIAL INTO A PROB30
GROUP, BUT CONFIDENCE-IN-OCCURRENCE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL
DEFER TO LATER ISSUANCES TO RE-ASSESS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION.
- WIND DETAILS:
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY EASE RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE THIS
EVENING, WITH LIGHT WINDS (SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 6-10KT) THEN
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY AM AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS (DIRECTION BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY).
SPEEDS WILL THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THURS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, BECOMING A BIT BREEZY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 10-15KT/GUSTS 15-25KT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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