900
FXUS63 KGID 071755
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1155 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
..18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES. BY THE TIME IT'S ALL SAID AND DONE,
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 COULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW,
WITH TOTALS CLOSER TO 1-2 INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
- WINDS WILL CONTINUE TURNING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY.
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE NOT OF THE QUESTION, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN LOWERED VISIBILITY AND SOME DRIFTING IN AREAS WITH HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATES TODAY.
- EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE DAWSON,
BUFFALO, HALL AND MERRICK COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 1 INCH OR MORE EXISTS, IN COMBINATION WITH
THOSE GUSTY WINDS.
- THE BRUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH
MIDDAY, WITH ACTIVITY WANING WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
CHANCE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS TO UP THE END
TIME FROM THE PREVIOUS 6PM EXPIRATION TO A 3PM EXPIRATION.
- THE FORECAST AFTER TODAY IS DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE 30S-40S,
TEMPERATURES CLIMB THIS WEEKEND, PEAKING ON MONDAY WITH LOW-
MID 70S AREA-WIDE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
CURRENTLY ON THROUGH TODAY/TONIGHT...
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE MO RIVER, WHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CA AND ANOTHER
SINKING SOUTH INTO NV. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
THE MAIN FLOW CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MAKING ITS WAY
INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NE/KS...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS TIED TO AN AREA OF MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING, WHICH HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SINKING
INTO NORTH-NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID HAVE
A COUPLE REPORTS EARLIER OF SOME ICE PELLETS...BUT PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE THIS MORNING REMAINS SNOW, ANY ACCUMULATION SO FAR
HAS BEEN LIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ROUGHLY ALONG I- 70/ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA, GRADUALLY SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE
EAST TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY.
OVERALL, HASN'T BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE MAIN STORY LYING WITH
THOSE CONTINUED SNOW CHANCES. MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT, SHOWING THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD TREK TODAY, WITH THE BEST FORCING/SNOW
CHANCES CONFINED MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 6 IN SOUTH CENTRAL NE. AS FAR AS TIMING
GOES, AGAIN NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...WITH THE BRUNT OF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY OCCURRING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AND LITTLE AFTER NOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE POCKET OF HIGHER 1-2 INCH
AMOUNTS SINKING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF
DAWSON/BUFFALO AND PERHAPS HALL COUNTIES...WITH THE TIMING BEING
LESS THAN IDEAL, POTENTIALLY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME
FRAME. AS THAT SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING,
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THOSE NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING IN SPEED, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30-35 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
SO BY THE TIME IT'S ALL SAID AND DONE LATER TODAY, STILL LOOKING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES MAINLY
FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 92, WITH 1-2 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR AREAS ALONG I-80/HWY 30, ESPECIALLY IN DAWSON-
BUFFALO-HALL COUNTIES. WITH THOSE AMOUNTS, EXPECTED WINDS, AND
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE, DECIDED TO EXPAND THE
INHERITED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THOSE 3 COUNTIES,
ALONG WITH MERRICK COUNTY...WHERE MODELS SHOW THE MAIN POTENTIAL
FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW. OTHER CHANGE TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WAS TO THE END TIME...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE BRUNT OF SNOW BEING THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
TAPERING OFF, SO WITH COLLAB FROM NEIGHBORS UPPED THE END TIME
TO 21Z/3PM (WAS 00Z/6PM). THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT INCOMING DAY CREW MAY BE
ABLE TO CAN SOME OF IT EVEN EARLIER, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, TEMPS HERE EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
STILL IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND AREN'T EXPECTED TO DROP
MUCH...KEEPING THE SNOW ON THE WETTER/STICKER SIDE OF
CONSISTENCY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID-30S NORTH TO LOW 40S IN KS...SO IT'S POSSIBLE A GOOD BIT OF
WHAT FALLS THROUGH THIS MORNING MAY MELT OFF AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT, LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS-20S...SO WHAT DOES MELT BUT
NOT TOTALLY DRY OFF WILL REFREEZE, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
SLICK SPOTS.
THIS WEEKEND...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...MODELS SHOWING
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S
SYSTEM. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CROSSING THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
ITS TRACK ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER, KEEPING ANY ACCOMPANYING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH. FOLLOWING THE GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WINDS ON SATURDAY ARE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY, SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH. ON
SUNDAY, WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY...AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. MODELS
NOT SHOWING A NOTABLY COLDER AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE
40S-50S, AND INTO THE 50S- 60S FOR SUNDAY.
NEW WORK WEEK...
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WORK WEEK REMAINS DRY...WITH
PRECIPTIATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...RESULTING IN
MONDAY BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY OF THIS 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. A WARMER AIR MASS BUILDING IN...ALONG WITH EXPECTED
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH...IS EXPECTED TO BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW-
MID 70S. WINDS CURRENTLY NOT LOOKING NOTABLE...BUT THIS WILL BE
A DAY WORTH WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY REMAINS DRY, WITH MODELS SHOWING
MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW, TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.. MAIN
STORY FOR TUE-WED IS THAT IT'LL BE COOLER, AT LEAST COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 50S-LOW 60S BY WEDNESDAY.
THAT'S STILL ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THURSDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE BACK MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S.
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES START WORKING THEIR WAY IN FROM
THE WEST THU EVENING-OVERNIGHT, WITH MODELS POINTING TOWARD
THE BEST CHANCES MOVING IN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOWING THIS BEING A POTENTIALLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THERE ARE PLENTY
OF THOSE DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED OUT, INCLUDING ITS EXACT TRACK
AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. IS A SYSTEM WORTHY KEEPING AN EYE ON
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TERMINALS START OUT MVFR FROM BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUD BASES NEAR 1,000-1,200FT WITH VISIBILITIES NOW
ABOVE 7 MILES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90%) FOR MVFR CEILING TO PERSIST THROUGH 20Z
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (40-80%) THROUGH 23Z. THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL TRANSITION FROM SCATTERED MID/HIGH
LAYER CLOUDS TO CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
20-25KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPECTED TO START TO LET UP SOME AFTER 22Z.
WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST,
SUSTAINING NEAR 8-12KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...STUMP
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