300
FXUS63 KGID 072341
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
541 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDSPEEDS OF 20-
25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35MPH SHOULD SIMMER DOWN RELATIVELY
QUICKLY THIS EVENING (BACK DOWN TO 10-15MPH OVERNIGHT).
- A MULTI-DAY WARMUP THROUGH MONDAY WILL SHOVE HIGHS BACK INTO THE
70S WITH DRYING CONDITIONS.
- THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE 40-60%.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
TONIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS MORNING'S SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
KANSAS, WE ARE LEFT WITH SOME STEADY 20-25 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP NEAR 30-35 MPH. THESE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK
THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERLIES SETTLE DOWN TO A LIGHT 5 TO 15 MPH
FROM THE CONTINUATION OF RISING SURFACE PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. A FEW
TRAILING CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE WAY THIS EVENING,
OPENING UP SKIES TOWARDS AN ALMOST CLEAR NIGHT. HIGHS TOPPING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL DROP TO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THESE ARE THE LOWEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAT WE HAVE IN OUR CURRENT 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
THE WEEKEND... SATURDAY & SUNDAY
DESPITE SOME COOLING ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER,
WEAKENING COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TRANSPIRE
A WEEKEND WARMUP. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S SATURDAY TO THE 60S SUNDAY. WINDS, INFLUENCED BY BROADER HIGH
PRESSURE, SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CALM AT NIGHT WITH A GENTLE BREEZE (5-
15 MPH) DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST ORIENTATED
WINDS. MOISTURE WISE, THE AREA WILL DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO LAG BEHIND THE
RISING TEMPERATURE, DROPPING RH VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA.
LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY FALL MONDAY AS A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND PASSING TROUGH. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S. SUBSIDING AIR UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS FURTHER,
TANKING RH VALUES DOWN TO 15-25% MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WINDS
RELATIVELY STEADY WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. ANY
BUMP UP IN WINDS MONDAY COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN
THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
SPITTING FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS MIDWEEK MAY ALLOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WINDS FLIP NORTH AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) WILL SAG A
TOUCH INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BEFORE ANOTHER MINI-WARMUP
THURSDAY PROPS HIGHS BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OTHERWISE THE NEXT MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT (5-20%) APART OF THE NEXT ORGANIZED
DISTURBANCE.
LONG TERM... FRIDAY
THOUGH THIS EVENT IS 6.5 DAYS OUT, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
NEXT ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE AROUND THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY THE NEXT PASSING DEEP
WAVE TROUGH. EARLY MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN TO THE INTENSITY OF THIS PAST
EVENT (~988MB) WITH A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS (BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR). AS OF NOW, THE BIGGEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, THOUGH IT
IS HARD TO PINPOINT SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME KNOWING THAT THE SYSTEM'S
TRACK AND TIMING WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE THEN. STRONGER WINDS ARE
USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A MATURING SYSTEM THAT COULD STIR UP
SOME GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. WINDS MAY RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 12 KNOTS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT FOR BOTH TERMINALS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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