875
FXUS63 KGID 081710
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1110 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
..18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN OVERALL PLEASANT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED, WITH A WARMING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS
FOR TODAY ARE IN THE 50S, WITH 60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
- THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A WARMER AIRMASS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION, MONDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE THE OVERALL
WARMEST DAY OF THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID-70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS WITH WINDS FOR MONDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON DROPPING INTO THE TEENS-NEAR 20 PERCENT, BUT WINDS
ARE NOT LOOKING TO BE OVERLY STRONG. SPOTS OF NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
ANY UPWARD TREND IN WINDS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CONCERN.
- FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE NEXT NOTABLE
WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE AREA ARRIVING ON FRIDAY, CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. THERE ARE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES, WITH THE EXACT
TIMING/TRACK ULTIMATELY DRIVING WHAT IMPACT WE HAVE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
(CURRENTLY FOCUSED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA), WITH A SWITCH
FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS FRI NIGHT-SAT.
CERTAINLY A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
CURRENTLY...
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTS OF MID-
UPPER CLOUDS, SKIES ARE CLEAR. LOOKING ALOFT, WE'RE SITTING
UNDER GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER TOWARD THE NERN CONUS,
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER AREA.
THE CLOSEST ANY PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THAT UPPER LOW HAS
BEEN TONIGHT IS OVER AREAS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. AT THE
SURFACE, A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ACROSS THE AREA,
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY BUT AT TIMES MORE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING TO FALL INTO THE MID TEENS TO
LOW 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THIS WEEKEND...
IN THE BIG PICTURE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH REMAINS DRY AND OVERALL
PLEASANT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THAT DESERT SW
UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS IT SLIDES EAST
ALONG THE OK/TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY, AS A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE WEST COAST SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE
PATTERN REMAINS ON THE WEAKER SIDE TODAY, WITH MORE NOTABLE
FEATURES WELL NORTH/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA...DOING LITTLE ELSE THAN BRINGING A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH THEN TURN BACK MORE
WESTERLY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND
10-15 MPH TODAY (MOST SPOTS LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 10 THAN 15).
WINDS INTO SUNDAY REMAIN WESTERLY, AS WE SIT BETWEEN AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE US/CAN BORDER AND HIGHER
PRESSURE IN THE SRN PLAINS..AND SPEEDS MAY BE A TOUCH HIGHER
THAN TODAY (CLOSER TO 15 MPH). EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN BOTH
DAYS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, EXPECTING A WARMING TREND IN
HIGHS...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WARMER AIRMASS
GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST INTO THE AREA WITH TIME. THE MORE SOLIDLY
WESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY (ALSO A TOUCH STRONGER) WILL HELP TAP
INTO THAT WARMER AIR...AND WHILE TODAY ISN'T BACK WITH HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE LOW-MID 50S, HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID-60S. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
MID-UPPER 40S TO LOW-50S.
EARLY-MID WORK WEEK...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AND AGAIN OVERALL NO NOTABLE
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE 7-DAY PERIOD STILL LOOKING
TO BE MONDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS, THOUGH BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
TIME THANKS TO A DISTURBANCE SWINGS OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE MAIN THERMAL AXIS WILL ALSO BE
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, WINDS LOOKING TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, DRIVEN BY AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THAT BY MID-AFTERNOON MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THESE WSWRLY WINDS REMAIN A FAVORABLE
DIRECTION TO TAP INTO THAT WARMER AIRMASS...AND FORECAST HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS-NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS POINT, MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WINDS NOT BEING OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY, BUT BREEZY ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
SPOTS. THE TREND IN WINDS WILL BE ONE TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER
TO MONDAY...EVEN A SMALL TREND HIGHER WOULD BRING MORE FIRE WX
CONCERNS.
THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT, SHOVED SOUTH BY THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG/NORTH OF THE US/CAN BORDER, IS EXPECTED
TO SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AREA-WIDE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING IN LOOKS TO DROP HIGHS FOR TUESDAY BACK
INTO THE 50S-NEAR 60...STILL NOT BAD FOR HIGHS. WEDNESDAY IS
FORECAST TO REBOUND BACK MORE INTO THE 60S. WINDS EITHER DAY ARE
NOT LOOKING TO BE STRONG, GENERALLY 10-15 MPH...NORTH, THEN
MORE EASTERLY FOR TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
LATE WEEK-NEXT WEEKEND...
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THURSDAY, WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING FROM
GENERALLY ZONAL TO START THE DAY...TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SWITCH IS DRIVING BY A
STRONGER/LARGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH MORE SOLIDLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A
BREEZY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PUSH OF WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A BUMP UP IN TEMPS, WITH FORECAST HIGHS
THURSDAY BACK IN THE LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT NOTABLE WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES IN
ON FRIDAY...BRINGING ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE FRONT END, AND MORE WINTRY WEATHER ON THE BACK END. HARD TO
HAVE A TON OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT...AS THE TIMING/TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT DETAILS FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE FASTER GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF...BUT HAVE BETTER GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW EITHER CROSSING RIGHT
THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA OR PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST, WITH DETER. MODELS/NBM SHOWING THE MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY FOCUSING JUST OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT ANY SLOW DOWN IN
THE SYSTEM COULD DRAG THAT POTENTIAL BACK WEST. AS COLDER AIR
WRAPS INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, DO HAVE A SWITCH FROM
RAIN TO SNOW AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE BACK IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CERTAINLY A
SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT AT LEAST 24+ HOURS WITH LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NO STRONGER THAN 10-15KTS TODAY. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE CALMING NEAR
SUNSET. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE
DAY UP TO 10-15KT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...STUMP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page