846
FXUS63 KGID 082326
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
526 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WEEKEND WARMUP CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
SUNDAY AND THE 70S BY MONDAY.
- DRIER AIR FILTERING IN MONDAY (RH VALUES AS LOW AS 10-25%)
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH,
SPARK SOME NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (MORE ISOLATED
THAN WIDESPREAD).
- A COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES 15-20
DEGREES TUESDAY (HIGHS 50S TO LOW 60S) WITH ANOTHER WARM UP
MID-WEEK FOLLOWING SUIT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO JUMP BACK TO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY THURSDAY.
- THE NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION CHANCE (50-70%) LOOKS TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH
PRECIP TYPE (RAIN/SNOW/THUNDER)AND ALSO WITH TIMING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
TONIGHT & TOMORROW...
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN OVERALL PLEASANT EVENING AS TEMPERATURES HANG
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH LIGHT 5-10 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS. CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH MAYBE ONLY
A FEW PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN DROP INTO THE 20S, GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT.
THIS WARM UP CONTINUES SUNDAY AS HIGHS STRETCH UP INTO THE 60S,
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES WARMER FROM TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE
AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT 10-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST. THE CALM WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND CAN MAINLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO BROAD HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE UNDERNEATH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ALONG. A FLATTENING RIDGE UPSTREAM REVEALS THE
CONTINUATION OF STABILIZING CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK.
IN REGARDS TO MOISTURE, THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM THE
MIXING OF A CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS DOWN OFF THE ROCKIES.
DEWPOINTS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LAG BEHIND THE WARMING TEMPERATURE,
PLUMMETING RH VALUES HEADING INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE 70S WILL RETURN MONDAY TO FINISH OFF THIS WEEKEND WARMING TREND.
MONDAY REMAINS THE WARMEST DAY IN OUR 7-DAY FORECAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN OVERHEAD LEADING TO
SUBSIDING AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT THE LOWER-LEVELS AS RH VALUES DROP TO AS LOW AS 10-25%.
RELATIVELY LIGHT 10-20 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 MPH MAY LEAD TO A FEW NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SPOTS GIVEN THE
VERY DRY CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH SOME SNEAKY OVERACHIEVING GUSTS ARE STILL TO BE
WATCHED.
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
PASSING CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS / CANADIAN BORDER, WILL COOL
THE MID WEEK TEMPERATURES SOME (15-20 DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY).
HIGHER PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND WILL BEND WINDS NORTH, AIDING
COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY.
A SECONDARY MID WEEK WARMUP SHOULD REBOUND TEMPERATURES SHORTLY
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTS PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO VEER CLOCKWISE OVERNIGHT AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT PULLS AWAY. THIS WILL OPEN UP A SOUTHERLY WARM AIR
ADVECTING PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY, PROPELLING THE SECOND WARMUP. HIGHS
SHOULD RETURN BACK TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.
SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL FLOW MIDWEEK FROM A SOUTH PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD KEEP ALL WED/THUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM
REGARDS A DEEPENING LOW NOW EXPECTING TO PASS OVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM... FRIDAY & SATURDAY...
A TROUGH, SET TO KICK OUT MIDWEEK'S RIDGE, WILL EMPOWER THE
DEEPENING OF A FORMING SURFACE CYCLONE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE AREA ITS NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE (50-
70%). DESPITE THE UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR A SYSTEM 6 DAYS OUT,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE AS POSITIONAL DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO MODELS SHEDS SOME GREY AREA REGARDING
POTENTIAL PRECIP MODE (RAIN/SNOW/THUNDER). GENERALLY THE EURO
POSITIONS THE JET AROUND 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE GFS, PLACING THE
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IN REGARDS TO DIRECTLY
OVERTOP (GFS). THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS A CRITICAL FORECASTING
ELEMENT FOR DETERMINING POTENTIAL PRECIP MODE/TYPE.
THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT (BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY LIE TOWARDS THE EAST AND CLOSER TO THE "WARM SECTOR"),
RAIN POTENTIALLY TRANSITING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT IS CURRENTLY THE
LEADING SCENARIO. THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WOULD ALL BE DEPENDENT
ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW ACTUALLY
BECOMES (GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE EURO). IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING
THAT IT IS JUST SIMPLY TOO FAR OUT TO EVEN TAKE A LOGICAL STAB AT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WE ONLY KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THE
PROJECTED PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE'S PLACEMENT/TIMING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO WEST THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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