100
FXUS63 KGID 091734
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TODAY, WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NE.
- A DRY AND WARMER DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MID-70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL NE COUNTIES.
- FORECAST REMAINS DRY TUE-THU...FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOLDOWN
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST, HIGHS REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 70S FOR THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
- STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ONTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, BRINGING OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. RAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, WITH COLDER AIR FRI NIGHT-
SAT SWITCHING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW...OVERALL AMOUNTS NOT
LOOKING NOTABLE AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING
PLENTY OF WIND, SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY, SWITCHING TO THE NW FRI
NIGHT-SAT...GUSTS FRI NIGHT-SAT NEAR 40-45 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
- IS CERTAINTLY A SYSTEM WORTH WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS, BUT
THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT, INCLUDING WITH
THE EXACT TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
CURRENTLY ON THROUGH TONIGHT...
BEEN ANOTHER VERY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AND OUTSIDE OF A
FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CREEPING IN FROM THE NORTH, SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW
MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SET UP
NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MARCHING EAST NEAR THE OK/TX
BORDER, WHILE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH FROM SRN CA NNEWARD
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINS WEAK, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY WESTERLY, BUT LIGHT, WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HERE AT 3AM RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO RIGHT AROUND 30 DEGREES.
NO NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING AT A DRY AND PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS THAT RIDGING TO THE
WEST CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY
ONTO THE PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH CONTINUES, MAINLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, BUT
OVERALL EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUN TODAY. WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT...AS WE'LL BE SITTING
BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER
PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/DAKOTAS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT ENDED UP
HAPPENING YESTERDAY, A FEW SPOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS CLOSER 20
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO,
BUMPED HIGHS UP JUST A TOUCH FOR TODAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A WARMER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST WITH TIME, AND
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING WINDS EXPECTED,
FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE MID- UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE. WOULDN'T BE
TOO SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW SPOTS THAT HIT 70. THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID-TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
THANKFULLY THE WINDS AREN'T STRONGER TODAY...SO WHILE SOME SPOTS
OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
(MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL NE COUNTIES), CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S (NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE 20S).
MONDAY AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS....
MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY OF THIS 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD (THOUGH THURSDAY MAY BE CLOSE)...AND IS A DAY
WITH INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS, THOUGH
LOSES SOME OF ITS AMPLITUDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES
EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
ALSO BE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA, MODELS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS IN
THE MID-TEENS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOWING ANOTHER DAY WITH
OVERALL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. ONE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO BUMP UP WINDS A TOUCH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NE...MODELS SHOWING WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE, SET
UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH ITS
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. BETWEEN A BIT TIGHTER OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INCREASED MIXING
POTENTIAL INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH,
AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE, AS MODELS SUGGEST SPEEDS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS WOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER.
WITH THE SUN EXPECTED, WARMER AIR MASS AND THOSE
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING WINDS...FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMP
RECORDS, GRAND ISLAND'S IS 84...BUT HASTINGS COULD BE CLOSE, THE
RECORD IS 78 DEGREES (FROM 1936, 1967) AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS 77.
ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WAS TO TREND DOWN
DEWPOINTS. SIMILAR TO TEMPS/WINDS, THE WESTERLY WINDS AND
INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL IMPACTS DEWPOINTS...AND WHILE DIDN'T
GO AS LOW AS THE HRRR/RAP RAW OUTPUT SHOWS, DID TREND THINGS
DOWN INTO THE TEENS/20S...AND IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOSE
COULD GO DOWN FURTHER DEPENDING ON TRENDS. AS A RESULT OF THE
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TEENS TO NEAR 20 PERCENT.
WITH THE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON THROUGH
8PM ON MONDAY. KEPT THE WATCH CONFINED TO ALL OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL NE COUNTIES EXCEPT FURNAS/HARLAN/FRANKLIN, WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL OF HITTING THE WIND/RH/TIME COMBO LIES. THERE IS
A SMALL AMOUNT OF LINGERING SNOW ON THE GROUND IN FAR NORTHERN
AREAS, BUT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S SHOULD TAKE CARE OF
THAT...ALLOWING FUELS TO DRY OUT FOR MONDAY.
MID-WEEK ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MONDAY NIGHT, THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...USHERING IN MORE NORTHERLY-THEN
EASTERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A DRY ONE...BUT AFTER HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY,
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY ARE BACK IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA (WHICH STILL ISN'T BAD, AS NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S).
THIS COOLDOWN IS A BRIEF ONE, AS HIGHS RAMP BACK UP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST FOR THESE TWO DAYS
REMAINS DRY, WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FEATURE OF
INTEREST...A DEEPER TROUGH/LOW PUSHING EAST FROM THE WEST COAST
TOWARD THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A FAIRLY WEAK PATTERN IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...WITH SFC/LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOLIDLY SOUTHERLY AS
WE GET INTO THURSDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH
WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 60S, WITH LOW-MID 70S RETURNING FOR THURSDAY
(RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AT BOTH GRI/HIS ARE 81 DEGREES). AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING AS
THAT MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES EAST, A MORE ORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, MODELS THEN SHOW THIS UPPER
LOW SWINGING NORTHEAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT STILL HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES, MORE SO WITH THE LOCATION/TRACK OF THE LOW VS THE
TIMING. THROUGH THE DAY-EVENING ON FRIDAY, THE GFS REMAINS ON
THE STRONGER/MORE NORTHERN SIDE OF THINGS, TAKING THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LOW RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GEM IS FURTHEST SOUTH, TAKING IT MORE ACROSS SSE KS...AND THE
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE, TAKING THE CENTER OF THE LOW VERY CLOSE
TO/OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE TIME 12Z
SATURDAY ROLLS AROUND, MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE UPPER LOW ROUGHLY IN THE MN/IA BORDER AREA, THEN CONTINUING
PUSHING NNE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY EVENING.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO BE FREE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME...WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING THE MAIN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY FOCUSING TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THAT
HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST 24HRS...WILL SEE IF THAT HOLDS
WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS...ANY SLOW DOWN COULD DRAW THAT
POTENTIAL BACK WEST. ANOTHER BIG UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH WHAT THE
TRACK ULTIMATELY ENDS UP BEING...THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS
BRING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA TO GET DRY-SLOTTED...NOT
ENDING UP WITH MUCH RAIN ON THE FRONT END OR WINTRY PRECIP AS IT
DEPARTS. THE COLDER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT IT'S NOT LOOKING LIKE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS. THAT BEING SAID, IT'S HARD TO HAVE A TON OF CONFIDENCE
IN ALL OF THE FINER DETAILS WITH IT STILL BEING SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY YET. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A WIND-MAKER...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SWITCHING TO THE NW FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. ESPECIALLY IN THAT FRIDAY
NIGHT-SAT PERIOD, GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, FRIDAY IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST AS
THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOOKS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
DAY...CURRENT HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW 60S WEST TO NEAR 70
EAST...WITH SATURDAY BACK IN THE 40S-50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. BREEZY
WRLY WINDS THIS AFTN, GUSTING UP TO 20KT, WILL QUICKLY DECR THIS
EVE AND REMAIN 4-8KT OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE W/SW. WINDS WILL INCR
AND BEC BREEZY ONCE AGAIN MON TOWARDS LATE AM AND CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTN. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-085>087.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...THIES
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