478
FXUS63 KGID 130543
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1243 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS (THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY) WITH
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS RETURNING EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THOUGH THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
- A COLD FRONT PASSING EARLY SUNDAY WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S) WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 35-40MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP, 20-40% SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW
LESSER CONFIDENT 10-40% CHANCES WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY NIGHT,
FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY.
- A RAPID RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 90S) IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER END-OF-WEEK COOL-DOWN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS STARTING OFF BETWEEN 15-25MPH AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35MPH, WILL QUICKLY SETTLE THIS
EVENING TOWARDS 15MPH WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO 15-20MPH
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. THIS STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TODAY HAS
HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 10-15 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE 80S. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR INFORMATION
ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS WEEK.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL NOON SUNDAY AS SOME SMOKE FROM
THE SOUTH LOWERS AIR QUALITY TO MODERATE LEVELS. THIS LOWERED AIR
QUALITY MAY AFFECT MORE SENSITIVE GROUPS.
STEADY WINDS OVERNIGHT (10-20MPH) WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EMERGES. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, PRESENTLY IN
PLACE, PREPARES TO BECOME INTERCEPTED BY A NORTHERN PLAINS BOUND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MIX UP A FEW THINGS FOR
SUNDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE REGARDS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY SUNDAY THAT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS COMPARED TO TODAY (20-30MPH) MAY GUST AS HIGH AS
40MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A 20-40% PRECIPITATION CHANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
SEEMS MORE QUESTIONABLE THAN CERTAIN GIVEN THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS,
THOUGH A SLIVER OF OF 500MB PVA ALONG THE BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
COULD PROVOKE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. A MORE CONSISTENT PRESENCE OF
THESE SHOWERS TO SOME DEGREE WITH MOST MODELS BRINGS A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION, HOWEVER, WILL BE EXPECTED AS THESE
SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN SPRINKLES TO LIGHTER SHOWERS.
DRY AND COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP HIGHS TO THE UPPER
60S (NORTHWESTERN AREAS) TO THE LOWER 80S (SOUTHEASTERN AREAS)
SUNDAY, CLOSING BACK IN TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURE RANGE BY MONDAY
(UPPER 50S TO MID 60S). REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
INFORMATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
A RIDGING PATTERN WILL START TO RETURN TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MOVING BACK UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY (BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S).
HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEPS WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING MAY SEND UP A FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. MIXED STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
FEW OF THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES; 10-30% WEDNESDAY, 20-40%
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND 20% SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, A WARMUP WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL SEND HIGHS BACK
TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, FOLLOWED BY A DECENT COOLDOWN TO THE
60S POTENTIALLY BY NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PLENTY OF CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE STREAMING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, THE VWP IS
INDICATING A 60 KT JET AT ABOUT 1KFT...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE WINDS LIGHTEN UP AROUND 13/09-10Z AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AFT ABOUT 13/14Z...WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. AS WINDS MOSTLY DECOUPLE
SUNDAY EVENING...ALBEIT REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15 KTS...SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER (7KFT) AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO COULD
IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.
DESPITE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON (MAINLY FOR OUR
EASTERN HALF), DEWPOINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LAG FAR BEHIND THE
TEMPERATURES, LIMITING RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES DOWN TO 15-30%.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS (AS HIGH AS 30MPH) WITH LOWER RH VALUES
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
AROUND 8PM.
STEADY 15MPH WINDS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20MPH OVERNIGHT,
WILL SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY (MAINLY BETWEEN 2-
8AM) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-
30MPH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST AS HIGH AS TO 40MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DOWN TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT, THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW AREAS APPROACHING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3PM TO 8PM FOR VALLEY,
GREELEY, SHERMAN, DAWSON AND GOSPER COUNTIES, WHERE THE RH IS MOST
FAVORED TO DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
WATCH WILL STILL BE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS (BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH).
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY, DRIER AIR BEHIND SUNDAY'S FRONT
COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING BACK NEAR-CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR VARYING PORTIONS
OF THE AREA EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ039-040-046-060-072.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...ROSSI
FIRE WEATHER...STUMP
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