173
FXUS63 KGID 131800
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER/WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OF SPRINKLES THIS EVENING. LITTLE (IF ANY)
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- A RAPID RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 90S) IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AGAIN, LITTLE PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, GUSTING OVER 40
MPH AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN GUSTS IN MESOSCALE MODEL
DATA OVER 40 KTS, OPTED TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A MENTION OF A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVER THIS FRONT TODAY, BY EVENING, SOME MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING MAINLY NEAR THE
NE/KS STATE LINES. GIVEN THE HIGH CEILINGS AND DRY LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, VERY SMALL POPS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY ARE THE POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT
QUESTIONABLE THIS AFTERNOON, OPTED TO UPGRADE AND EXPAND THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TO MATCH UP WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS AS DESPITE THE MARGINAL MINIMUM RH VALUES, THE VERY
STRONG WINDS AND DRY FUELS WILL LIKELY MAKE UP FOR THIS
MARGINAL RH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY, BUT CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE WEEK WITH A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS AND CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AS
HIGHLIGHTED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO REGAIN ITS
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
COMING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES ARE SMALL AND UNCERTAIN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THIS SCENARIO, WITH A RETURN TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS, IT IS LIKELY SOME AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY AND ANY AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE PRECIP WILL LIKELY RECEIVE
MINIMAL AMOUNTS. THAT SAID, ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACCUMULATION BEGINNING NEXT SUNDAY AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
OVERALL-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, WITH
MODERATELY-STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS CLEARLY BEING THE MAIN
STORY MUCH OF THE TIME (GUSTS COMMONLY 25-35KT). THAT BEING
SAID, THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR: 1) AT LEAST A SCATTERED DECK
OF LOW-VFR/HIGH-MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE AROUND FOR A TIME MONDAY
MORNING...2) A LINE OF SPOTTY SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
PERHAPS PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE DETAILS FOLLOW.
- CEILING/PRECIPITATION DETAILS:
ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY CONSIDERED A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY (PROBABLY
LESS THAN 20% CHANCE), THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THAT SOME
LOWER CLOUDS (BASED AROUND 3K FT.) COULD PASS THROUGH MAINLY
DURING THE 09-16Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW, HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT
THIS POTENTIAL BY INTRODUCING A "FEW030" GROUP, BUT THIS WILL
NEED MONITORED JUST IN CASE A "SNEAKY" HIGH-END MVFR CEILING
TRIES TO MATERIALIZE. AS FOR RAIN POTENTIAL, STRONGLY CONSIDERED
LEAVING ANY MENTION OUT OF TAFS, BUT WITH AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL
FOR A BAND OF SPRINKLES/HIGH-BASED LIGHT SHOWERS TO PASS THROUGH
THIS EVENING, INTRODUCED A GENERIC "VICINITY SHOWER" (VCSH)
01-06Z.
- WIND DETAILS:
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE MODERATELY-WINDY
CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST (DIRECTION
QUITE CONSISTENT). SPEED-WISE, THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE SUSTAINED SPEEDS 20-25KT/GUSTS 25-35KT, WITH THE MAIN
EXCEPTION BEING A RELATIVELY BRIEF "LULL" DURING THE 01-06Z TIME
FRAME DURING WHICH SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL LIKELY EASE DOWN CLOSER
TO 15KT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO NEAR 50 MPH, ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20
PERCENT, TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NEBRASKA TRI-CITIES. WHILE CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING LATER TODAY.
CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS INVADING FROM THE NORTH, MORE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR THE
TIME BEING, THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS INCLUDED IN A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF THESE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES.
BEYOND MONDAY, AT LEAST ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THIS POINT, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046-047-060-072.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...ROSSI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page