527
FXUS63 KGID 141733
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1233 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES INFILTRATING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTING
TO NEAR 45 MPH) AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (15 TO 20
PERCENT) WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.
- ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SEVERE OR WIDESPREAD AS WHAT IS FORECAST
FOR TODAY.
- AS WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, PATCHY FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS TO START THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS THE TYPICALLY COOLEST SPOTS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING.
- A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA MID-WEEK,
BUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PROMISING CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE
HORIZON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, BUT SO FAR, ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
AT THE SURFACE AS CLOUDS HEIGHTS ARE NEAR 10 KFT AND ANY
RAINFALL IS FALLING THROUGH A VERY DRY AIRMASS...LIKELY FULLY
EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. DID ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE ACROSS FILLMORE COUNTY A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO, BUT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY IN SOUNDING DATA, NO
ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE
REGION. DESPITE A RETURN TO NEAR FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE, WITH HIGHS
LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, WHICH WILL COMBINE TO CREATE SEVERAL
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BY MID-LATE EVENING, WINDS SHOULD RELAX ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD SET-UP
FOR MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY COOLEST SPOTS. WHILE THE
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD OVERNIGHT WILL NOT BE IDEAL, COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LOW LYING AND SHELTERED
SPOTS TO START THE DAY TUESDAY.
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND INTO
THE 70S FOR TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, SOME MOISTURE
SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL
HELP TO LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONCERNS LOOK PROBABLE. AT THE SAME
TIME, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
CROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY, BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD OR VERY
PROMISING PRECIPITATION EVENT.
BEYOND THURSDAY, OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THE GFS BRINGING A STRONG LOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHILE THE EC TAKES
A MUCH LESS ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EITHER WAY, PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY MID TO
LATE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING WITH BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION
POTENTIALLY RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE THE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG NW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, THEN GRADUALLY DECR THIS EVE.
EXPECT PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22-25KT, AND GUSTS AROUND
35KT. SHOULD SEE INCR HIGH-BASED CU MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS
AFTN, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHWRS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHCS FOR GRI THAN EAR, SO ADDED A BRIEF PROB30 FOR GRI.
BASES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 8-12K FT.
BOTH CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL DECR THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER (7-12KT) WNW-W WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUE AM.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES INFILTRATING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY,
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTING TO NEAR 45
MPH) AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (15 TO 20 PERCENT) WILL RESULT
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY, BUT WITH
LIGHTER WINDS, ANY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN ADVECT A WARMER (AND SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST) AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL STILL RETURN AREA-WIDE AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID-80S.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY, BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...THIES
FIRE WEATHER...ROSSI
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