999
FXUS63 KGID 142115
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING GUSTY NW WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FROST IN
SPOTS.
- ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SEVERE OR WIDESPREAD AS WHAT IS FORECAST
FOR TODAY.
- SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES, AMID A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN
AND POTENTIALLY GREATER CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE,
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS SHARP NW
FLOW IN PLACE WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING IS SUPPORTING STRONG NW WIND GUSTS ON
THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45 MPH. DESPITE AIR TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, VERY DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S IS STILL LEADING TO CRITICALLY LOW RHS BELOW 20-25
PERCENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
AFOREMENTIONEDSHORTWAVE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
SUPPORTING ISO TO WIDELY SCAT LIGHT SHWRS AND LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION ACROSS SD INTO FAR N NEB. THE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SLIDE FROM AROUND VTN TO OFK TO OMA, BUT MAINTAINED THE
CHC FOR SPRINKLES FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS IN OUR FAR N/NE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY, AND THE
STRONG NW WIND GUSTS, TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DECR
SUBSTANTIALLY BY AROUND SUNSET.
THE AFOREMENTIONED VERY DRY AIR AND ARRIVAL OF WEAK SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. WHILE NEB ZONES ARE DETERMINED TO HAVE MIXED
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO FROST/FREEZE (PLANTS RUNNING "AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE", BUT STILL WELL AWAY FROM MEDIAN LAST FROST/FREEZE
DATES), NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES ARE LIKELY SOLIDLY MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE. SOMEWHAT OF A JUDGEMENT CALL, BUT ALSO BORN OUT IN
GROWING DEGREE DAYS DATA. HOWEVER, OUR 6 KS COUNTIES SHOULD ALSO
TEND TO BE THE WARMEST AND ONLY SPEND A COUPLE/FEW HRS NEAR
FREEZING. ALSO, THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DRY AIR TODAY/TONIGHT
AND FACT THAT THE SFC HIGH ISN'T PARKED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD,
SHOULD KEEP OVERALL COVERAGE/THICKNESS OF FROST PRETTY LIMITED.
LONG STORY SHORT...COULD "TECHNICALLY" GO WITH A FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINE IN N KS, BUT GIVEN MARGINALITY OF THE SITUATION, OPTED
TO HOLD OFF AND ISSUE AN SPS, INSTEAD, TO DETAIL THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE NICE BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS
RISE INTO THE 60S AMIDST LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WINDS TURN SRLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL PUMP IN
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY. SE ZONES WILL BE BRZY,
BUT AREAS W OF HWY 281 (AND ESP. W OF HWY 183), WILL EXPERIENCE
ONLY SEASONABLY MODEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG (50+ KT) LOW LEVEL JET COULD LEAD TO
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION/SHWRS WED NIGHT, MAINLY OVER E ZONES.
BEST CHCS MAY REMAIN JUST E OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM (EVEN HOT?) DAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT - LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH PEAK HEATING, WHICH IF IT HOLDS, WOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD 80S TO LOWER 90S GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE (H85 TEMPS >20C) IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OF
COURSE, THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL EFFECTS FROM WED NIGHT
CONVECTION, STRATUS(?), PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW, AND TIMING OF THE
FRONT - WHICH COULD ALL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT AND
BRING AT LEAST A 20-40 PERCENT CHC FOR SHWRS/STORMS. SOME MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG CAPPING FROM THE BASE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) AROUND 800-750MB. THUS,
PROSPECTS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION AND ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
APPEAR QUITE LIMITED. COULD STILL GET SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT DEPENDING ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES. IN GENERAL, THOUGH, THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN THU-FRI AS NOT A GREAT AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT FOR SUCH A
SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE/FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WANES SIGNIFICANTLY
OWING TO POOR MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. BROADLY
SPEAKING, UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE W CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE
SE CONUS, AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL, SHOULD
SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. AS ALWAYS, THOUGH, DEVIL IS IN
THE DETAILS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WOULD ALSO SUGGEST FLUCTUATING
TEMPS AND NOT A PREDOMINATELY COLD OR HOT REGIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: STRONG NW WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG NW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, THEN GRADUALLY DECR THIS EVE.
EXPECT PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22-25KT, AND GUSTS AROUND
35KT. SHOULD SEE INCR HIGH-BASED CU MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS
AFTN, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHWRS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHCS FOR GRI THAN EAR, SO ADDED A BRIEF PROB30 FOR GRI.
BASES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 8-12K FT.
BOTH CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL DECR THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER (7-12KT) WNW-W WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUE AM.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS ARE SEEING NWRLY WIND
GUSTS AVERAGING 35 TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPS AND EVEN SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER/CU, RHS HAVE
STILL MANAGED TO FALL BELOW OUR CRITICAL LEVEL OF 20 PERCENT.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE THROUGH 5-6PM BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
IMPROVEMENT COMES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING 7-9PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY, BUT WITH
LIGHTER WINDS, ANY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. EVEN
THIS LOOKS TO BE "MARGINALLY NEAR-CRITICAL" AND LIMITED TO ONLY
A FEW HOURS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN ADVECT A WARMER (AND SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST) AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL STILL RETURN AREA-WIDE AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID-80S.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A POTENTIAL DRY LINE SURGE AND
VERY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LOOKS TO RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
FIRE WEATHER...THIES/ROSSI
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