337
FXUS63 KGID 151702
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1202 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM THIS MORNING
FOR LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAPIDLY
RISE INTO THE 40S BY MID-MORNING...BEFORE TOPPING OUT NEAR 70
THIS AFTERNOON.
- THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS TODAY, WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. EVEN SO, A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS COULD REACH 15
TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE DAY.
- WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH NEAR-CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL AREA.
- A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THURSDAY. IF REALIZED, A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THIS PERIOD.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING OR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
A COOL START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN SPOTS AS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, PREVENTING A FURTHER DROP IN MORNING
TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO, SOME VERY PATCHY FROST MAY BE REALIZED IN
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED SPOTS TO START THE DAY.
AFTER THE COOL START, A NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA
AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RETURN TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY, COULD SEE SOUTHERLY BREEZES
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH FOR WESTERN AREAS, AND WITH THE
LOW RH VALUES, OPTED TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, HELPING MAINTAIN STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND A MUCH
MORE MILD START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS A WEAK RIDGE THEN
MOVES OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID-80S ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
LIKELY AGAIN RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT
GIVEN SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW, MORE CRITICAL
CONCERNS MAY BE AVERTED. LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY, MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS, WHICH COULD SPARK SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THIS DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY
PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, SO A MARGINALLY STRONG STORM
WITH SMALL TO NEAR SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY STORMS
ARE REALIZED LOCALLY. THIS WILL AGAIN REPEAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND WITH A MORE CLASSIC INVERTED V
PROFILE IN SOUNDING DATA, BOTH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
COVERAGE, AND CONTINUE TO THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY OVER
THIS PERIOD WITH THE MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
FINALLY RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW CONVERGING
ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE COMING
WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED BY THE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THIS LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER SET UP FOR SOME BENEFICIAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THEREAFTER
INTO NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES ARE CONTINUING TO LOOK MORE ACTIVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KS/OK BORDER WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS MAY GUST INTO
THE UPPER TEENS AND WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. A LLJ
IS FORECAST TO SETUP TONIGHT SO KEPT THE MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
TAFS. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...NWS HASTINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page