077
FXUS63 KGID 152329
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
629 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT. VARIOUS AREAS OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 1-2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- COOLER, BUT MAINLY DRY, FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT EASTER SUNDAY WILL WET WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. IT'S TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST
GREATEST RISK WILL REMAIN S/SE OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE, SEASONABLY LIGHT WINDS, AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. IT HAS BECOME A BIT BREEZY IN OUR W 1/3, OR SO, WITH
SEVERAL AUTOMATED STATIONS REPORTING GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OVER
THE LAST HR. WITH THE VERY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE, THIS IS
RESULTING IN SOME NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/W OF HWY 183. GOOD TO SEE THAT THE SIGNIFICANT BURN
ACTIVITY (GREAT WX FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS) FROM THIS MORNING HAS
CALMED DOWN PER RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE FURTHER FROM THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SRLY FLOW TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CONSIDERABLY
WARMER (10-20 DEGREES) THAN LAST NIGHT - GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
THE WARMER START TO THE DAY, ALONG WITH CONTINUED SRLY FLOW/WARM
AIR ADVECTION, WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SPOTS IN OUR FAR S MAY EVEN
TOUCH 90F. THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL STILL REMAIN PRETTY DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, BUT ESPECIALLY W OF HWY 183 WHERE
MIN RHS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. FORTUNATELY, THE DRIEST AIR
ON OUR W LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN OUR S/SE. SO RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE (ROUGHLY HWY 281) MAY
BE A BIT OF A "SWEET SPOT" FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. IN
OUR FAR W WHERE RHS WILL BE THE LOWEST, MOST MODELS KEEP EVEN
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH, OR LESS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCR WED NIGHT
AND FINALLY START TO ADVECT SOME BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME ISO, ELEVATED TSTMS LATE WED
NIGHT, PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND E ZONES AS THE LLJ VEERS
06-09Z THU. IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THERE'S A PRETTY STRONG CAP THAT WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN, SO
ACTIVITY MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL.
SETUP BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR THU AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE IN THE FROM THE N, AND A SFC LOW/TRIPLE POINT
MOVES NE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND ALONG THE FRONT INTO PERHAPS
OUR FAR W/SW ZONES DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE HRS. THIS POSES THE
RISK FOR THE DRY LINE TO SURGE FAR ENOUGH E THAT FIRE WEATHER
BECOMES A CONCERN FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND ESP S OF THE STATE
LINE. LATEST FORECAST BLEND CALLS FOR CRITICAL MIN RHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR MOST OF OUR KS ZONES. WIND LOOKS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR TO A HIGHER-END TYPE OF FIRE DAY, BUT WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEEP MIXING, THINK AT
LEAST HIGH-END NEAR-CRITICAL TO LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVE HRS. QUESTIONS/UNCERTAINTY ON
RETURN MOISTURE QUALITY AND CAPPING STILL EXIST, BUT AT LEAST
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A NARROW WINDOW IN TIME/SPACE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NE, AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT, WHERE ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD LOCALLY ERODE THE
CAP JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME ISO CONVECTION. TOR THREAT WOULD
LIKELY BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND POOR BL
RH/RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS. HOWEVER, LONG 1-6KM HODOGRAPHS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME LP SUPERCELLS AND
SEVERE HAIL THREAT, ESP IF STORM COVERAGE REMAINS ON THE LOWER
END. DRY MID LEVEL AIR COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME COLD/GUSTY RFDS.
SPC HAS PULLED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) A BIT FURTHER W TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO/TREND...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
REFINEMENTS ARE LIKELY AS THE SFC PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER.
SHWRW/STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT, BUT FRI AND SAT STILL
APPEAR TO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
GETS PUSHED WELL SE OF THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY, FRI-SAT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S, AND FRI COULD BE
QUITE BLUSTERY DUE TO N WINDS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE CALMER SAT.
THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OF THE SW ON
EASTER SUNDAY...WHICH MAY NOT BE IDEAL TIMING FOR OUTDOOR EGG
HUNTS, BUT MOISTURE IS PRETTY SORELY NEEDED AS APRIL HAS BEEN
DRY. WHILE MODELS AGREE BROADLY ON THE OVERALL TIMING AND TRACK
OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW...THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT ON QPF...WITH GFS
CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE LATEST EC. HOWEVER, EVEN THE EC HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SE WITH THE PRIMARY DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN,
WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN AMOUNTS. WITH
THAT SAID, THE 12Z EPS AND GEFS DATA ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
UNLIKE THE OTHER AND AGREE THAT ONLY SE THIRD HAS MORE THAN
10-30% CHANCE FOR >0.50"...UNFORTUNATELY. SO THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE IT COULD RANGE FROM NOTHING/VERY LITTLE IN OUR W/NW, TO
0.10-0.25" FOR OUR SE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH POSSIBLE. NOT THE WIDESPREAD SOAKER THAT WE NEED. WITH THE
PRIMARY LOW TRACK FAVORING WELL SE OF THE AREA (I-35-ISH), WOULD
NOT EXPECT MUCH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THOSE STILL HOPING FOR
GREATER RAINFALL CAN CLING TO GEPS OUTPUT.
AFTER COOLER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND...NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE UP
AND DOWN, BUT NOT OVERLY HOT OR COLD. UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO
FAVOR ZONAL OR SW FLOW, WHICH SUGGESTS SEVERAL MORE PRECIP
CHANCES AND GENERALLY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THAN WE'VE SEEN THUS
FAR IN APRIL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TOMORROW.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...WEKESSER
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