492
FXUS63 KGID 161153
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
653 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY
(UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S) WITH NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND (MID 50S TO MID 60S FRI THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON).
- A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (20-40%) AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (20-60%). A FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL (30-50%) WILL FALL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTER SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
SHORT TERM ... TODAY AND THURSDAY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL HOLD UP THE STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S TODAY AND POTENTIALLY UP TO THE
LOW 90S FOR A FEW SOUTHEASTERN SPOTS THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION DOWN BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR SOME LOW-LEVEL
SMOKE THAT HAS ADVECTED NORTH AND INTO PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS SMOKE
COULD LIMIT AIR QUALITY DOWN TO MODERATE LEVELS. THIS LOWERED AIR
QUALITY MAY AFFECT MORE SENSITIVE GROUPS.
ALOFT, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PREPPING TO MERGE WITH A
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS MERGING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
PRIME THE REGION FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPING
STORMS, PRIMARILY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A HANDFUL OF STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
COULD BREAK OUT AHEAD OF A KANSAS DRYLINE AS A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
JET GETS ACTIVE. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FRINGES, THOUGH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE. FAIRLY
DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6-8 *C/KM) WITH CAPE NEAR 500-1,000J
COULD SUPPORT ANY STORM THE OPPORTUNITY TO GROW HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY LIMITED OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY AS MOST STORMS WILL BE IN THEIR EARLIER STAGES OF LIFE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY LIMITS CONFIDENCE AS THE
POSITIONAL PLACEMENT OF STORMS ARE NOT WELL IN CONCISENESS BETWEEN
MODELS. GENERALLY THE BEST POTENTIAL (30-40%) WILL FALL ACROSS OUR
KS COUNTIES AND THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR NE COUNTIES (MAINLY ALONG
AND EASY OF HWY-281).
A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL SET UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH STORMS MAY AGAIN REMAIN LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT. A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL SERVE AS A
RELIABLE FORCING MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION. A MODEST CAP IN
PLACE (STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION) COULD LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS
TO A DEGREE, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL NORTH OF HWY-6. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY BE EVEN BE ABLE TO POP OUT WHERE THE DRYLINE
INTERACTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THE ESTIMATED 50-55KT OF 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE BE IN REGARDS TO HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AS WELL AS 60 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REACH FURTHER UP INTO MID-
LEVELS. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER RESTS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
LONG TERM ... FRIDAY AND BEYOND
A COOLDOWN WILL BE IN LINE FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR SETTLES
DOWN AND IN BEHIND TURSDAY'S COLD FRONT. STEADY 15-20 MPH NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS THE
AREA, MAINTAINING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, LIKELY
STAYING THROUGH EASTER DAY. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE MOVING IN SATURDAY
SHOULD LIGHTEN WINDS SOME AS THE MERGING TROUGH ALOFT BEGINS TO
SWIVEL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SETTING UP THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE
SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
SUNDAY (30-50%) AS THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO FALL UNDERNEATH THE
SYSTEM'S COLD SIDE PRECIPITATION REGION. SHOWERS WILL BE THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES WEIGHTED TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AND EAST.
BEYOND SUNDAY, SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW BRIEF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOK TO KEEP THE EXTENDED PERIOD ACTIVE.
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD EARN THE
MONTH ITS "APRIL SHOWERS" NICKNAME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS UP TO 10-15KTS OUT OUT THE SOUTH. LLWS, FROM
THE INFLUENCE OF A NOCTURNAL JET, IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4Z AND 9Z
OF AROUND 45KTS FROM 200 DEGREES. A FEW MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE THE AFTERNOON TO EVNING (BASES AS
LOW AS 10,000FT).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
DESPITE SOUTHERLY WINDS FUELING A SURGE OF MOISTURE THIS
AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE EXPECTED TO LAG BEHIND THE
TEMPERATURE (ESPECIALLY OUT WEST) LIMITING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DOWN TO AS LOW AS 10-25%. FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH NEAR-CRITICAL IN A FEW EASTERN SPORTS (MAINLY EAST OF
HWY-281) AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED (10-20 MPH).
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
BROADEN OUT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO AREAS MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES. THOUGH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BRING UP DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE, RH VALUES WILL STILL BE EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS OUR KS AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE FOR OUR KANSAS COUNTIES BETWEEN 1PM
AND 9PM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
FIRE WEATHER...STUMP
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