698
FXUS63 KGID 180518
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1218 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
TODAY THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY 5PM-9PM. LARGE, DAMAGING HAIL
IS THE PRIMARY RISK, WITH A LESSER RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND.
- COOLER AND BREEZY FRIDAY. AREAS OF FROST AND SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
AREAS (ESPECIALLY WEST) MAY STAY MOSTLY/COMPLETELY DRY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER PRESENT OR
EXPECTED SO THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE COLD
FRONT HAS ALSO RESULTED IN MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA SO
THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING.
AS OF 3PM, THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM MCCOOK TO GRAND ISLAND TO COLUMBUS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT IN
THE 4-6PM TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
(WHERE THE ENHANCED RISK RESIDES). ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 50-60KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MUCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 2000-3000J/KG...FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE, DAMAGING HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND.
THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS BY AROUND 8-9POM AS STORMS DEPART TO THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, OTHER
THAN SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES OVER OUR NORTH.
FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. THERE ARE STILL SOME LOW POPS IN SOUTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. WITH
THIS DRIER TREND, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SENSITIVE PLANTS AND OUTDOOR HOSES/PIPES
SHOULD BE PROTECTED, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SOME OF THESE AREAS COULD SEE A MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL
RAIN, BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR WESTERN AREAS. THE
12Z ENSEMBLE SUITE SHOWS ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE FOR 0.10" OF RAIN
FOR IN OUR WEST/NORTHWEST (DAWSON UP TO VALLEY COUNTY).
NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
ON MONDAY WITH OFF/ON CHANCES FOR RAIN (HIGHEST CHANCES LATER IN
THE WEEK).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON JUST HOW LOW CEILINGS DROP
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, CAN'T TOTALLY RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS, AND KEPT THAT MENTION
GOING AT BOTH TERMINALS. FROM MID-MORNING ON THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS PERIOD, HAVE VFR CONDITIONS GOING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING GUSTY NW CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE, DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...ADP
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