771
FXUS63 KGID 181112
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
612 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (20
PERCENT), FORECAST IS DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. THESE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SSW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- AFTER HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 90 ON THURSDAY, COLDER AIR
SETTLING INTO THE AREA WILL DROP HIGHS FOR TODAY INTO THE 50S.
LOWS TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S-UPPER 30S...CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME FROST ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWING NNE OUT OF THE DESERT
SW/SRN PLAINS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE ESE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
- AN OVERALL ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE GET
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH PERIODIC SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
CURRENTLY...
AFTER A MORE ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING FOR FAR ENERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, THINGS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN PRETTY
QUIET. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA SW THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND BROAD RIDGING FROM THE
GULF COAST NEWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HELPED PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
YESTERDAY'S STORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTH COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM SW KS INTO CENTRAL IA. THE
GUSTY NNW WINDS THIS FRONT USHERED IN CONTINUES EVEN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 25-35 MPH. MORE LOWER LEVEL
STRATUS HAS GRADUALLY BEEN CREEPING SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SKIES
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY, TO THE SE,
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OVERALL, NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST HERE IN
THE VERY SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT ENDING UP DRY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF FLOW ALOFT...CONTINUING TO BE
SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CREEPING
EAST WITH TIME, WHILE THE MAIN CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO TO DIG
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS
FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO...KEPT MENTION IN THE LOW CHANCE
(20 PERCENT) CATEGORY, CONFINED TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CERTAINLY AREN'T
SHOWING ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA, BUT
DON'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST CLIPPING SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MEASURABLE FALLING IS NOT HIGH.
AT THE SURFACE, EXPECTING THE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...IT'S NOT UNTIL
LATE TODAY-EARLY EVENING THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO
RELAX MORE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM THE MAINLY 70S TO
NEAR 90 FELT ON THURSDAY...FORECAST HIGHS TODAY MAY TOP OUT
AROUND 50 IN THE WNW, WITH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SE. LOWS TONIGHT
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...AND IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SOME FROST COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NNW AREAS WITH THE
COLDER AIRMASS AND DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT HOW
MUCH SKY COVER CAN CLEAR.
THIS WEEKEND...
THE START OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE DRY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, MODELS SHOWING
THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SW MAKING
SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS, BUT ANY NOTABLE LIFT/PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THIS UPPER LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHEASTWARD
TURN, LOOKING TO END UP GENERALLY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
START RAMPING UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, AS
LARGER SCALE LIFT STARTS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
OVERALL BEST CHANCES COMING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY,
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE IN THE 40-80 PERCENT RANGE. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TREKKING NNE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, MOVING INTO IA
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE
OVERALL BEST CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS THE ESE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND AM CONCERNED THE CURRENT FORECAST CHANCES ARE TOO
BROAD IN NATURE/TOO FAR EAST...SOME MODELS SHOW NO QPF ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING MODELS TREND BUT IF
THERE ISN'T ANY NOTABLE CHANGE, THOSE FORECAST POPS WILL NEED
TO BE TIGHTENED UP/LOWERED IN THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITY/THUNDER CHANCES BEING
FOCUSED OFF TO THE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY GRADUALLY TURN MORE EASTERLY, WITH SPEEDS ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE AROUND 10-15 MPH...TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH KS INTO IA. SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT
MORE BREEZY ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...SATURDAY HIGHS ARE RIGHT AROUND 60...WITH
SUNDAY IN THE 50S AS THAT UPPER LOW/PRECIPITATION SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA.
MONDAY AND ON...
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S,
DIMINISHING WINDS/SKY COVER...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A FROST
ADV MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER.
OTHERWISE FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION REMAINING ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE, ZONAL-
SWRLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AND ON. MODELS DO SHOW INSTABILITY
WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION, BRINGING THE MENTION OF
THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST...BUT DIFFER ON THE MAGNITUDE, SO
PINNING DOWN ANY DETAILS ON WHETHER STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT. FORECAST AT THIS TIME NOT LOOKING AT ANY
OVERLY WINDY DAYS...WINDS VARY FROM DAY-TO-DAY IN DIRECTION, BUT
SPEEDS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR, MAINLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP...WITH MAINLY 70S
FORECAST EACH DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
NO NOTABLE CHANGES MADE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS...DO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
MID-LATE MORNING (LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THIS PERIOD), BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT EXACT TIMING IS NOT HIGH. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD REMAIN NNWRLY, GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. GUSTS THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEEDS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO 10-15 MPH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
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