825
FXUS63 KGID 021740
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION THAT PICKS UP MORE THAN 0.10-0.15"
SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF LUCKY, OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (CWA)
STANDS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR PASSING SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH AROUND SUNSET TODAY.
- ALTHOUGH FROST IS NOT A "SURE THING" EVERYWHERE DUE TO SOME
MODEST UNCERTAINTY IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST, A FROST
ADVISORY HAS NONETHELESS BEEN HOISTED FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA FOR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (THE ONLY FROST POTENTIAL IN THE
ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST).
- FROM SUNSET THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON
MONDAY, OUR FORECAST IS ALL-BUT-GUARANTEED DRY...PAVING THE
WAY FOR WHAT WILL BE AN OVERALL-SPECTACULAR WEEKEND BY EARLY-
MAY STANDARDS.
- MAINLY MONDAY EVENING-THURSDAY BRINGS A RETURN OF VARIOUS
INTERMITTENT RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK CURRENTLY APPEARS SEASONABLY-LOW.
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: OVERALL THESE NEXT 7-DAYS VERY
SEASONABLE/TYPICAL FOR EARLY-MAY, WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS
60S-70S AND LOWS ON MOST NIGHTS 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
-- PRIMARY 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE THOUGHTS, CHANGES,
UNCERTAINTIES:
- UP FRONT NOTE: GIVEN THAT THIS WAS THIS FORECASTER'S "FIRST
GO-ROUND"/DEEP-DIVE THROUGH THESE NEXT 7 DAYS, HONESTLY DON'T
HAVE A GREAT "FEEL"/HISTORY REGARDING HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING. THAT BEING SAID, A QUICK SIDE-BY-SIDE COMPARISON
BETWEEN THIS LATEST "FORECAST PACKAGE" AND OUR PREVIOUS ONE
(ISSUED THURS AFTERNOON) REVEALS NO CHANGES OF ANY REAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
- FROM AN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY/COMFORT STANDPOINT, THIS WEEKEND'S
WEATHER (SAT-SUN) APPEARS TO BE ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS FOR
EARLY-MAY (PLENTIFUL SUN, COMFORTABLE TEMPS, NOT OVERLY-
WINDY...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE BREEZY SUNDAY).
- PROBABLY ONE OF THE BIGGEST "PLEASANT SURPRISES" TO THIS
FORECASTER COMING OFF A FEW DAYS OFF IS THE APPARENT LACK OF
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY OF NEXT WEEK'S INTERMITTENT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OBVIOUSLY PLENTY OF TIME FOR A "SNEAKY"
STRONG TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE SETUP TO SNEAK INTO THE FRAY, BUT
BY MAY STANDARDS NOTHING LOOKS ALL THAT CONCERNING AT THIS
TIME (AND ACCORDINGLY SPC HAS NOTHING OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE
EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO OUR AREA ON THE LATEST DAY 4-8 SEVERE
OUTLOOK).
- OBVIOUSLY THE ONE THING WE DO NEED (ESPECIALLY OUR CENTRAL
COUNTIES/ INCLUDING THE TRI CITIES/ WHICH HAVE MISSED OUT MORE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF OUR CWA DURING THE LAST WEEK) IS RAIN.
OTHER THAN TODAY'S LIMITED POTENTIAL (AT LEAST AMOUNT-WISE),
UNFORTUNATELY THE AFOREMENTIONED MON-THURS CHANCES DON'T
CURRENTLY APPEAR PROMISING FOR TRULY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS EITHER. IN FACT, VERY PRELIMINARILY, MOST OF OUR CWA
IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REALIZE CUMULATIVE MON-THURS TOTALS
BETWEEN 0.20-0.80...NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY "MOVE THE NEEDLE" ON
THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE (D1) TO LOCALIZED SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
STILL BLANKETING THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 5 AM:
RAINFALL-WISE: ALTHOUGH IT WASN'T MUCH IN MOST PLACES (MOST
PLACES PICKED UP NO MORE THAN 0.05-0.15", NEARLY OUR ENTIRE CWA
SAW AT LEAST A TOUCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT
HOURS, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A FAIRLY NARROW, NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS THAT PUSHED THROUGH AND
HAS NOW ALL-BUT-DEPARTED OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FRINGES. MEANWHILE, A
NEW BATCH OF SPOTTIER LIGHT SHOWERS HAS STARTED TO BRUSH DOWN
FROM THE NORTH INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA. IN BETWEEN THESE
"PUSHES" OF PRECIPITATION, MUCH OF ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN
2/3RDS OF OUR CWA HAS TEMPORARILY SEEN CLEARING SKIES.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA REVEAL A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE UNITED
STATES, WITH A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE/HIGH PREVAILING OVER ROUGHLY
THE WEST HALF OF THE NATION WHILE A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH DOMINATES
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF. ON THE SMALLER SCALE, OUR RAIN CHANCES
THESE NEXT 16 HOURS OR SO WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AS IT TRAVELS ALONG A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORY FROM SD/NE TOWARD MO/AR/EASTERN OK.
AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IS THE MAIN DRIVER OF OUR
ONGOING NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES (MOST PLACES CURRENTLY SUSTAINED
5-15 MPH). TEMPERATURE-WISE, MOST OF OUR CWA APPEARS ON TRACK TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40-48 RANGE.
-- TODAY-EARLY THIS EVENING (THROUGH AROUND SUNSET):
WHILE MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME, THESE NEXT 16
HOURS OR SO WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR ENTIRE CWA, BUT WITH THE OVERALL-HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY FAVORING OUR EASTERN 2/3RDS.
THIS ACTIVITY, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO/ACROSS
OUR CWA AS THE DAY WEARS ON, WILL BE DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF
FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ENHANCED FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM MODEST LOW-LEVEL
HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR PRETTY UNLIKELY (ONLY "GENERAL THUNDER" FROM SPC), BUT WE
PROBABLY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
WIND GUSTS INTO THE 40-50 MPH RANGE GIVEN THAT THE LATEST RAP13
CALLS FOR MIXED-LAYER CAPE (INSTABILITY) PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
200-500 J/KG. ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
THAT SLIGHT (20%) CHANCES FOR THE LAST OF THIS LINGERING
ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
"FORECAST BLOCK" (7-10 PM), MAINLY FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 281, WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE LAST OF
THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT DIES OFF COMPLETELY WITH THE SETTING SUN
AND DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER WAVE.
IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS TODAY, EVEN ASIDE FROM ANY ENHANCED GUSTS
FROM DEVELOPING CONVECTION, IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY WITH
NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS COMMONLY SUSTAINED 10-20 MPH/GUSTS
15-25 MPH). THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST CARRIES A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME,
BUT MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH MOST PLACES AIMED RIGHT AROUND
60, ANY MID-60S MOST FAVORED FAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
- LATE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (AFTER 10 PM):
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND A HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS SETTLES IN AT THE SURFACE, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR WHAT
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE "MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION" BEING JUST HOW COLD IT GETS
AND THE RESULTANT MAGNITUDE OF A FROST THREAT?
OVERALL, IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT,
WITH LIGHT WINDS DECREASING TO 5 MPH OR LESS AND WHAT SHOULD BE
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASSUMING NO PESKY PATCHES OF LOW
STRATUS MATERIALIZE). GIVEN THAT THIS OVERALL SETUP APPEARS TO
MORE STRONGLY FAVOR A "COLDER THAN EXPECTED" VERSUS "WARMER THAN
EXPECTED" TEMPERATURE OUTCOME, IF ANYTHING NUDGED DOWN LOW
TEMPS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS (BUT OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE).
THE NET RESULT IS LOWS IN MOST PLACES AIMED 33-37 DEGREES. WHILE
AT LEAST LIMITED FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PRETTY LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF OUR FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES, ONE OF
THE BIG QUESTION MARKS IS HOW MUCH FROST IS ABLE TO FORM WITHIN
ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERED KICKING ANY POTENTIAL ADVISORY DECISION TO DAY SHIFT,
ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO ISSUE A CWA-WIDE FROST ADVISORY VALID
1-9 AM FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA TO GIVE FOLKS SOME HEIGHTENED/EARLIER
AWARENESS OF TONIGHT'S FROST POTENTIAL (AND MORE TIME TO
POTENTIALLY COVER PLANTS, TAKE THEM INDOORS, ETC.). THIS FROST
ADVISORY IS BEST DESCRIBED AS "MEDIUM CONFIDENCE" AS IF IT
HAPPENS TO STAY EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED, THEN
LITTLE-TO-NO FROST WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER, AFTER SEEING AT LEAST
ONE NIGHT WITH A SIMILARLY-IDEAL COOLING POTENTIAL "OVERACHIEVE"
A FEW WEEKS AGO AND GET COLDER THAN EXPECTED (THE MORNING OF
APRIL 19TH), OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GO WITH THE
CWA-WIDE FROST ADVISORY (UNCERTAINTY AND ALL), GIVEN THAT
EARLY-SPRING FLOWERS/EARLY GARDENS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY-
PRONE TO FROST IMPACTS. WE MIGHT ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT (NOT CURRENTLY IN OUR FORECAST).
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY (THE WEEKEND):
IN SHORT, THIS IS A PRETTY MUCH GUARANTEED DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLY-COMFORTABLE WEEKEND AS OUR CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
RESIDES UNDER A PRONOUNCED NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...PUTTING US "SAFELY" WELL TO THE WEST AND EAST OF UPPER
LEVEL LOWS CENTERED OVER BOTH OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, BOTH DAYS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR WITH HIGHS
MAINLY LOW-MID 70S (SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S MOST
PLACES...TOO WARM FOR A FROST THREAT). THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE TWO DAYS ARE WINDS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE UNUSUALLY
LIGHT SPEEDS (MAINLY 10 MPH OR LESS) FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH. SUNDAY IS THEN A TOUCH
BREEZIER (ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON) WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH/GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
- MONDAY-THURSDAY:
NO TIME FOR ANYTHING RESEMBLING "FINER DETAILS" REGARDING THESE
FOUR DAYS AT THIS TIME, AND THAT IS PROBABLY JUST FINE
CONSIDERING THAT THERE REMAIN AT LEAST MODEST DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF A
VERY SLOW-MOVING/LUMBERING UPPER LOW THAT GRADUALLY DRIFTS INTO
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS
COVERED ABOVE, NOTHING STANDS OUT AS AN "OBVIOUS" SEVERE STORM
THREAT FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME, DESPITE OUR FORECAST BEING
LITTERED WITH SEVERAL (MAINLY LESS THAN LIKELY...LESS THAN 60%)
CHANCES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING ONWARD. THESE RAIN CHANCES
WILL CLEARLY NEED PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING AS THEY GET CLOSER.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, NOT LOOKING AT ANY BIG SWINGS, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY AIMED MID 60S TO MID 70S, AND LOWS MAINLY MID 40S TO
AROUND 50.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND 20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT BY 03Z AND VARIABLE BY 06Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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