551
FXUS63 KGID 031030
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AS LONG AS YOU DON'T MIND TODAY'S SEASONABLY-CHILLY START AND
SOME BREEZINESS SUNDAY (NOT OVERLY-WINDY), YOU'D BE HARD-
PRESSED TO FIND A MORE PLEASANT WEATHER-WEEKEND AROUND HERE IN
EARLY-MAY (HIGHS INTO 70S BOTH DAYS UNDER WIDESPREAD SUN)!
- IN TERMS OF "HAZARDOUS WEATHER", OUR MAIN, SHORTER-TERM
CONCERNS INCLUDE AN ONGOING FROST ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (CWA), AND ALSO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY WITHIN PARTS OF OUR NEBRASKA
CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- OUR FORECAST REMAINS ALL-BUT-GUARANTEED DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- BETWEEN MON EVENING AND THURSDAY, VARIOUS/INTERMITTENT RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO OUR CWA. WHILE THIS SOUNDS PROMISING AS
SEASONAL/ANNUAL DEFICITS CONTINUE TO GROW FOR MOST,
UNFORTUNATELY MOST OF THESE CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY CONSIDERED
LESS THAN "LIKELY" (LESS THAN 60%), AND ACTUAL CUMULATIVE
AMOUNTS CURRENTLY APPEAR QUITE MEAGER (ESPECIALLY IN MOST OF
OUR NEBRASKA CWA).
- TEMPERATURE-WISE NEXT WEEK: CERTAINLY NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY-MAY, WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS MID 60S-MID 70S AND LOWS MOST
NIGHTS IN THE 40S (THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS BEYOND THIS MORNING).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
-- PRIMARY 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE THOUGHTS, CHANGES,
UNCERTAINTIES:
- FOR THOSE "ALONG FOR THE RIDE" HERE 24 HOURS AGO, HONESTLY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OF NOTE WITH THIS LATEST "FORECAST
PACKAGE".
- IN THE SHORT TERM, HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP VERY SLIGHTLY
MAINLY FOR SUN-MON, AND NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WERE INTRODUCED TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, THIS DOES NOT LOOKS TO BE A
FIRE WEATHER SITUATION THAT WORSENS TO CRITICAL LEVELS (THAT
MIGHT REQUIRE A WARNING), ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT VEGETATION IS
NOT AS PRONE TO EXTREME FIRE SPREAD AS IT WAS SAY A MONTH AGO.
- ALTHOUGH ONE SHOULD ALWAYS BE HESITANT TO DECLARE AN "ALL
CLEAR" FROM ALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN MAY (ESPECIALLY CHANCES STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT), NEXT WEEK'S VARIOUS CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE
MARKED BY SEASONABLY-WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HOPEFULLY, AT
LEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA CAN CATCH SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAIN
WITHOUT ANY SEVERE THREAT.
- AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE AT LEAST
LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS, THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL FORECAST MON-
THURS HAS LOWERED FOR MOST OF OUR CWA, WITH MOST AREAS
(ESPECIALLY IN NEBRASKA) NOW EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO SEE EVEN
0.10". OUR KS ZONES (AND FURNAS COUNTY AREA) APPEAR A BIT MORE
FAVORED TO PERHAPS GET INTO HIGHER (BUT STILL MODEST)
0.25-0.50" TERRITORY.
- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL BREAKDOWN:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM (INCLUDING ONGOING
FROST POTENTIAL):
AS WAS FULLY EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S SCATTERED
SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS (WHICH DID YIELD A FEW REPORTS OF PEA
SIZE HAIL), THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY AM HOURS HAVE BEEN INCREDIBLY
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY-CHILLY.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CONFIRM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE U.S.,
WITH AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE/HIGH STRETCHED IN NORTH-SOUTH FASHION
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES, WHILE A
BROAD TROUGH RESIDES OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. HERE LOCALLY, WE RESIDE ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN
THESE TWO MAIN LARGE-SCALE FEATURES, WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSED OVERHEAD
YESTERDAY AND SPARKED OUR WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEPARTED
SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH ITS MAIN VORT MAX SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MO.
WITH VERY LITTLE EXCEPTION, SKIES HAVE BEEN PRISTINELY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT, AS AT LEAST SUBTLE HINTS OF AT LEAST PATCHES OF LOWER
STRATUS HINTED AT BY SOME MODELS 24 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN PROVEN
OVERDONE.
AT THE SURFACE, IT'S VERY CLEARLY BEEN A "RIDGE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING", WITH A ROUGHLY 1019 MILLIBAR HIGH PRESSURE AXIS DRAPED
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE HEART OF OUR CWA, PROMOTING VERY LIGHT
BREEZES RANGING FROM CALM TO NO MORE THAN 6 MPH OUT OF THE
(MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS ALL ADDING UP TO AN ALMOST
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS MORNING, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING (OBVIOUSLY SUPPORTED BY CURRENT OBS) THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL INDEED BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
33-39 DEGREES THIS MORNING, WHICH COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PATCHY/BRIEF FROST
DEVELOPMENT INTO PLAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA, AND PERHAPS
MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN HALF.
FROST MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND/OR LONG-LASTING ENOUGH TO
TRULY DAMAGE/KILL EARLY-SEASON SENSITIVE VEGETATION (ESPECIALLY
IN OUR EAST HALF), BUT THIS MORNING'S TEMPERATURES CLEARLY
SUPPORT ALLOWING THE ONGOING CWA-WIDE FROST ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ITS CURRENTLY-SCHEDULED 9 AM EXPIRATION TIME.
- TODAY:
WHILE OBVIOUSLY A CHILLY START, THINGS WILL STEADILY WARM UP
STEADILY THIS MORNING, PAVING THE WAY FOR WHAT THIS FORECASTER
IS DECLARING A PROVERBIAL "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE" WEATHER DAY!
UNDER BENIGN NORTHERLY FLOW/RIDING ALOFT, SKIES WILL FEATURE
NEARLY- WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. OF PARTICULAR NOTE, WINDS WILL BE
UNUSUALLY-LIGHT, WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ONLY
DEPARTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. AS A RESULT, SUSTAINED SPEEDS TODAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 5-10 MPH. WIND DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES
THROUGH, BUT BY EARLY EVENING A MORE CONSISTENT EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WILL MATERIALIZE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS, MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE,
WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA AIMED INTO THE 70-74 RANGE.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
IT REMAINS CLEAR AND DRY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES DRIFTS EASTWARD AND RIGHT THROUGH THE
HEART OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL (MAINLY 5-10 MPH). THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY-COOL NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS
COLD AS THIS MORNING...WITH LOW TEMPS AIMED MAINLY 39-42
DEGREES. THIS SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FROST
CONCERNS AT BAY.
- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
AN OVERALL-GREAT WEATHER WEEKEND CONTINUES, AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR AND WE REMAIN GUARANTEED DRY AS UPPER RIDGING
PREVAILS BETWEEN TWO DISTINCT UPPER LOWS (ONE DIGGING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER SPINNING IN NEARLY-STATIONARY
FORM OVER THE OH VALLEY/EASTERN MIDWEST REGIONS. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER GREAT DAY TO GET OUTDOORS, BUT REALITY RETURNS IN THE
FORM OF AT LEAST MODERATELY-BREEZY (NOT OVERLY-WINDY)
CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM LATE-MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE SUSTAINED 10-20 MPH/GUSTS 15-30 MPH
(OVERALL-STRONGEST COUNTIES WEST OF HWY 281, OVERALL-LIGHTEST
EAST OF HWY 281). HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP VERY SLIGHTLY (AND
VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY)...MOST AREAS AIMED 73-76.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE COMBO OF SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPOINTS DOES NOW APPEAR TO BRING AT LEAST MARGINALLY-
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO PLAY FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH SEVERAL OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES TECHNICALLY
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE BOTH WIND GUSTS OF 20+ MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (RH) AS LOW AS AT LEAST 25%. FORTUNATELY, VEGETATION
(ESPECIALLY SHORT GRASSES) HAVE GREENED UP ENOUGH THAT THE
OVERALL FIRE THREAT IS NOT AS CONCERNING AS IT WAS A MONTH OR
MORE AGO, BUT DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THESE NEAR-CRITICAL CONCERNS
TO OUR HWO.
AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, LIGHT-BUT-STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES
WILL KEEP THE TREND OF EACH-NIGHT-SLIGHTLY-MILDER-THAN-THE-LAST
INTACT, WITH LOWS AIMED MID-40S MOST AREAS.
- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
IN ALL REALITY, THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL PROBABLY GET
THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS DRY PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT AT
LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
TO PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF MAINLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALOFT, THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
LEADING EDGES OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY EDGING TOWARD THE PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY, OVERALL DAYTIME CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY, WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL HIGH TEMPS MAINLY MID-70S AND
SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
- TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
IN SHORT, VARIOUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/MAINLY WEAKER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BUT WHILE APPEARING
TO OVERALL-WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. WHILE THERE WILL WILL BE RAIN
AROUND, THIS WILL NOT BE A "NON-STOP" RAIN BY ANY MEANS,
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS (AND
OVERALL-HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES) ARE CONCENTRATED TUES EVENING-WED
DAYTIME). HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE
CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES MOVE IN, WITH HIGHS TUES CURRENTLY AIMED
UPPER 60S-MID 70S, AND WED HIGHS MID 60S-LOW 70S.
- THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
FOR BEING 6-7 DAYS OUT, THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE ACTUALLY IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT CALLING FOR THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW THAT
STARTS OUT DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO GRADUALLY
DRIFT/DEPART OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
STATES. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN THE PRECEDING TWO
DAYS, AND OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY THURS NIGHT-
FRIDAY), IT MIGHT BE HARD TO RULE OUT AT LEAST SPOTTY, MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS AS SOME WEAK LIFT LINGERS ALOFT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS CURRENTLY CALLED FOR,
WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HONESTLY, ONE OF THE "EASIEST" TAFS THIS FORECASTER HAS COMPOSED
IN A WHILE! ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF SUB-VFR
VISIBILITY IN SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE
OF SUNRISE (CURRENTLY DEEMED ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE AND THUS NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS), THE ENTIRE PERIOD FEATURES EXTREMELY-HIGH-
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS, DRY WEATHER AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER WHATSOEVER.
EVEN WINDS WILL BE UNUSUALLY-LIGHT BY MAY STANDARDS, WITH A
SLOW-MOVING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS KEEPING SUSTAINED SPEEDS NO
HIGHER THAN AROUND 7KT/GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN AROUND 10KT
THROUGHOUT. DIRECTION IS BEST INDICATED AS VARIABLE (VRB)
THROUGH 00Z, AFTER WHICH TIME A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT WILL COMMENCE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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