488
FXUS63 KGID 041107
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
607 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE BELOW
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 TODAY DUE TO LOWER
HUMIDITY (AS LOW AS 23%) AND GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 25 MPH).
- STORM/SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
(35-65%) WITH LIMITED COVERAGE/CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY (LESS THAN 25-35%).
- TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BETWEEN THE MID 60S TO LOW 80S THROUGH
THE WEEK, LEANING ON THE COOLER SIDE WEDNESDAY AND THE WARMER
SIDE FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW...
YET ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS OF 10-20 MPH, A TAD STRONGER FROM
YESTERDAY, WILL BLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS OUT AND OVER THE MIDWEST. ALOFT, A RIDGE JAMMED
BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS (AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN) WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT OVERHEAD, OFFERING REGIONAL SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE SOME WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION, DRIER AIR SINKING FROM ALOFT
SHOULD MIX DOWN, LETTING MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE
(AS LOW AS 23-30% AND DRIEST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80). THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN ADDITION WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 MPH
(STRONGEST GUSTS TOWARDS THE WEST) MAY CONCERN A FEW AREAS OF NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MID TO UPPER 70S RETURN FOR HIGHS MONDAY WITH LIGHT (10-15 MPH)
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE FROM SUNDAY WOULD BE IN
REGARDS TO A FEW CLOUDS STARTING TO BUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CHANGE FORECAST-WISE FOR MONDAY WOULD
BE THE SLOWER PRECIPITATION ONSET TREND FROM AN UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY NOW DO NOT EXCEED 25%
FOR ONLY A FEW SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD COME TUESDAY WHEN THE WESTERN
LOW, LYING BEHIND THE RIDGE, SLIDES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION. DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL PVA ALONG
THE LEFT-EXIT JET REGION WILL SUPPORT LOCAL ASSENT ACROSS THE AREA
FOR PART OF THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM IN THIS REGION TUESDAY, BEGINNING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE
WEST AND SOUTH (CLOSER TO THE PRECIP CENTER), WITH DECREASING
POTENTIALS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. PEAK
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOW LEANING TOWARDS WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY (15-30%). OUR
CURRENT POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY STRETCH A WIDE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA (35% IN FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS TO 65% IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS). THOUGH ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, EARLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES PLACE THE
MAXIMA AMOUNTS(UP TO 0.5") ACROSS ONLY A FEW OF OUR KANSAS AREAS,
WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ONLY EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE UP TO 0.15".
OTHERWISE, HIGHS THOUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID
60S AND 70S, BEING ON THE COOLER SIDE WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN 10-20 MPH DURING THE DAYS (10-20 MPH) AND NEARLY
CALM AT NIGHT, WITH DIRECTIONS GENERALLY STAYING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST, EAST TO NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (THOUGH NEXT SUNDAY) REMAINS
DRY AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS FAVORED TO TAKE BACK OVER ALONG
WITH RISING SURFACE PRESSURE. HIGHS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE FAVORED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CONTINUING WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH DIRECTIONS BOUNCING BETWEEN MAINLY A
SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY DIRECTION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NO EXPECTED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS START OFF LIGHT THIS MORNING (LESS THAN
10KTS), THOUGH ARE SOON EXPECTED TO PICK UP TOWARDS 10-15KTS
(AFTER 16Z) AND WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST AS HIGH AS 20KTS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. WINDS BETWEEN 1Z AND 3Z SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT AGAIN, LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING FOR MONDAY MORNING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
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