542
FXUS63 KGID 051733
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH CHANCES PEAKING WEDNESDAY (30%
FOR FAR NORTH AREAS AND UP TO 80% FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS).
- THE BEST CHANCES AS WELL AS GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
(0.25-0.5") WILL FALL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. A FEW
NE AREAS MAY FALL WELL SHORT OR BE MISSED ALTOGETHER
(DECREASING POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH).
- A MINI-WARMUP OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES UP TO
TO LOW TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
TODAY...
BE SURE TO SOAK UP THE SUN TODAY AS THIS CURRENT STREAK OF SUNNY DAYS
WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS A MID-WEEK SYSTEM CLOSES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S (A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FROM SUNDAY).
WIND-WISE, 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO HELP LIFT UP DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TABLE ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SURFACE PRESSURE WILL SOON BEGIN TO FALL AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH,
ATTACHED TO AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW, TRAVERSES OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL SQUEEZE THE RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT,
EVENTUALLY TAKING OVER IN ITS PLACE NEAR WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE MAIN TALKING POINTS FOR THIS PERIOD COME FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM'S INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINLY IN
REGARDS TO WEATHER INVOLVES THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE HAVE BEEN
STARTING TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MORE ON THE DOWN LOW AS CONFIDENCE
IN APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS HAS OVERALL DECREASED (ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY).
SO, WHAT HAS CHANGED? THE TIMING FOR ONE HAS SLOWED SOME. THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION ONSET (SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS) NOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ABLE TO COVER MUCH OF THE
AREA UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING OR EVEN AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN TAKING THIS SYSTEM'S PRECIPITATION BANDS AS FAR
NORTH WITH STORM COVERAGE NOW LOOKING TO BE MORE SPOTTY THAN
WIDESPREAD. MORE AREAS (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST) MAY
BE MORE LIKELY TO BE MISSED OUT THAN HIT. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA (MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE STATE LINE) REMAIN MORE LIMITED
(LESS THAN 0.20") ACROSS THESE THREE DAYS WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS
(UP TO 0.5") RESERVED FOR ONLY AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
TIMING-WISE, THE EARLIEST ANY AREA WOULD RECEIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
(AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TRI- CITIES) WOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(20-45% CHANCES). PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH CHANCES PEAKING FOR THE
FULL EVENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (30-65% FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA &
65-80% FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS). CHANCES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING DROP DOWN TO ONLY 15-45% AS STORM COVERAGE
DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT (INCREASING STABILITY). SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING (30-60%)
JUST BEFORE THE SYSTEM CENTER COMPLETELY EXITS THE AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL, IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS AS WELL AS AREAS WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
INCREASE TOWARDS THE SOUTH (AREAS CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM CENTER) AND
DECREASE TOWARDS THE NORTH (AREAS ON THE OUTSKIRTS).
HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S, DROPPING A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY (LOW 60S TO LOW
70S). WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 10-20 MPH WINDOW DURING THE
DAYTIME, WITH DIRECTIONS GENERALLY STAYING OUT OF THE EAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS RELATIVELY DRY (A FEW 15-20%
POPS FRIDAY) WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL OPEN
BACK OUT TO A RIDGING PATTERN AS THE MIDWEEK LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ALSO REPLENISH,
HELPING OPEN UP A WEAK SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. HIGHS
IN RESPONSE WILL BE ON THE RISE STARTING FRIDAY, WARMING A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE START TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
EASTERLY NEAR 10 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TRANSITIONS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...ROSSI
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