666
FXUS63 KGID 052058
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
358 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP NORTH OF I-80 IS BECOMING VERY
QUESTIONABLE.
- PLEASANT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH 80S FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND TO START NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK HAVE TRENDED UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.
- A WARM, DRY AND POTENTIALLY WINDY START ANTICIPATED TO NEXT
WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FUEL STATUS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SUNNY SKIES, RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES (ALBEIT A BIT ON
THE GUSTY SIDE) AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
OBSERVED. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY CONTINUE TO STRETCH
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CROSS NEW MEXICO AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS
LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, COULD SEE A COUPLE
OF THE DISSIPATING BANDS OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LIFT
AS FAR NORTH AS I-80 TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF
THE NE/KS STATE LINE. GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY, ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES REACH THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
LIGHT/NON-SEVERE, AND OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...DESPITE THE RATHER
GENEROUS POPS IN THE FORECAST, OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS (MAINLY LESS THAN 0.2
INCHES) WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY, DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
(AND LIKELY BEYOND) AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(IN THE 80S) OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...AS WE LOOK TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY DEEP AND SLOW MOVING WEST COAST TROUGH
THAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...MAKING FOR A WINDY, WARM AND DRY
COMBINATION TO START NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINATION COULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO START THE
WEEK...BUT ONLY IF THE FUELS HAVE NOT COMPLETELY GREENED UP BY
THEN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE START TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
EASTERLY NEAR 10 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TRANSITIONS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
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