218
FXUS63 KGID 060539
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1239 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP NORTH OF I-80 IS BECOMING VERY
QUESTIONABLE.
- PLEASANT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH 80S FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND TO START NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK HAVE TRENDED UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.
- A WARM, DRY AND POTENTIALLY WINDY START ANTICIPATED TO NEXT
WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FUEL STATUS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SUNNY SKIES, RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES (ALBEIT A BIT ON
THE GUSTY SIDE) AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
OBSERVED. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY CONTINUE TO STRETCH
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CROSS NEW MEXICO AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS
LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, COULD SEE A COUPLE
OF THE DISSIPATING BANDS OF PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LIFT
AS FAR NORTH AS I-80 TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF
THE NE/KS STATE LINE. GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY, ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES REACH THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
LIGHT/NON-SEVERE, AND OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...DESPITE THE RATHER
GENEROUS POPS IN THE FORECAST, OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS (MAINLY LESS THAN 0.2
INCHES) WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY, DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
(AND LIKELY BEYOND) AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(IN THE 80S) OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...AS WE LOOK TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY DEEP AND SLOW MOVING WEST COAST TROUGH
THAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...MAKING FOR A WINDY, WARM AND DRY
COMBINATION TO START NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINATION COULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO START THE
WEEK...BUT ONLY IF THE FUELS HAVE NOT COMPLETELY GREENED UP BY
THEN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
75% CHANCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE. THE LOWEST CLOUDS WILL STAY
BETWEEN 6,00-9,000FT RANGE WITH CEILINGS MAINLY STAY NEAR 20KFT
UNTIL AFTER 0Z WHEN BASES MAY FALL AS LOW AS 12,000TFT (HIGHER
PROBABILITY AT KEAR THAN KGRI).
LIGHT TO VARIABLE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY FOR
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY BETWEEN 10-15KTS WITH GUST UP TO 20KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LIGHTENING UP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 15-20%.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...STUMP
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