966
FXUS63 KGID 061127
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
627 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON(30-70%). INCREASING POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
- MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN 0.05" OR WILL BE
MISSED ENTIRELY WITH KANSAS AREAS SEEING UP TO 0.1-0.4".
- MULTI-DAY WARMUP AFTER WEDNESDAY, FROM THE MID 60/70S TO THE
80S BY SATURDAY.
- WARM, DRY WEATHER AND MORE ACTIVE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER CLOSED LOW, CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST BELOW THE FOUR CORNERS,
PREPARES TO SLIDE OVER TO THE KS/OK BORDER BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN AREAL INFLUENCES THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE WITHIN THE NEXT THREE
DAYS INCLUDE THE PRESENCE OF PARTLY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH A FEW
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCATIONS SITUATED SOUTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE, WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY LOCATIONS ABLE TO
PICK UP MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES (GENERALLY
INCREASING TOWARDS THE SOUTH) FOR THESE LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT (20-60%) AND WILL PEAK EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (30-
70%). AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WILL MAINLY STAY BELOW 35%
THROUGH THE FULL EVENT WITH A FEW ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 0.05" FOR ANY PLACE THAT MAY RECEIVE A BREAKOUT SHOWER.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS AND IN MOST PLACES WON'T EXCEED MORE THAN 0.1"
WITH A FEW KANSAS AREAS RECEIVING ANYWHERE FROM 0.1-0.4". A FEW
EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS. AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LIMITED SIDE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF
THE SYSTEM'S PRECIPITATION BAND'S ABILITY TO MANEUVER MUCH FURTHER
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
DISSIPATING, WIDENING GAPS OF SHOWER COVERAGE. BY THURSDAY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED (10-40%) FOR ONLY A FEW
LINGERING AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS (MOST SHOWERS WILL BE COMPLETELY
ERODED BY THEN).
BESIDES PRECIPITATION, HIGHS FOR TUESDAY REMAIN VERY SIMILAR FROM
MONDAY, BACK IN THE 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGING
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S (GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE). WINDS SHOULD STAY
OUT OF THE EAST, PEAKING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10-20 MPH DURING THE
DAYTIME. CLEARING SKIES STARTING THURSDAY WILL HELP KICK START A
MULTI-DAY WARMUP, LEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/QUIET WEATHER SHOULD TAKEOVER THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL FALL UNDER A REGION
OF BLOCKED FLOW AS A REX BLOCKING PATTERN (RIDGE NORTH OF A CLOSED
LOW) SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARDS THE 80S,
WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY. PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW THOUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
(THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY) WILL OFFER SOME STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A DEEPENING
NORTHERN PLAINS BOUND SURFACE LOW TIGHTENS THE AREAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THERE IS A 75% CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE. THE LOWEST
CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY STAY BETWEEN 6,00-9,000FT UNTIL AFTER 06Z
WHEN THE LOWEST CLOUDS MAY HANG AS LOW AS 4,000FT. CEILINGS WILL
STAY CLOSE TO 20KFT UNTIL AFTER 0Z WHEN BASES BEGIN TO FALL AS
LOW AS 10,000-14,00FT (GENERALLY LOWER CEILINGS AT KEAR THAN
KGRI).
LIGHT TO VARIABLE SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH NEAR 10-15KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 20KTS OUT OF THE DUE EAST. WINDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WILL THEN BECOME CALM AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.
AN BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, THOUGH
CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (<20%).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
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