141
FXUS63 KGID 071147
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
647 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, PRIMARILY THIS
MORNING TO AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE (30-40%) AND THIS AFTERNOON TO NIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF THE TRI- CITIES (25-35%).
- MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL RISE BEYOND TODAY, CREEPING
UP INTO THE 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
STARTING SUNDAY (15 TO 25 MPH).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
TODAY AND THURSDAY...
WE START THE MORNING OFF WE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
PRIMARILY OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. DESPITE A EASTERLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE, THESE SHOWS ARE BEING STEERED BY
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE SPINNING
LOW. COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH/REMAIN
LIMITED THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM'S PRECIPITATION CORE SHIMMERS
FURTHER EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES (<20%) THROUGH THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN A VORTICITY STREAMER
(NARROW BAND OF SHEAR) COULD INITIATE AND KICK OFF A FEW SCATTERED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. POPS REMAINS ON THE LOWER END (25-
35%) BECAUSE OF THEIR LIMITED (SPOTTY) COVERAGE, AND NOT FROM
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOST
LIKELY FORM ALONG OUR NORTH TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND WILL BE ON THE
MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST (OUT OF THE AREA). SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT CLEARLY AGREE ON WHERE THIS NARROW BAND WILL EXACTLY
INITIATE. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT THAT MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE.
MEANWHILE, AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE CAN EXPECT TO
CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF OFF-AND-ON LIGHT SHOWERS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. 30-40% POPS LAST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES ON THE DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT (OPPOSITE OF CHANCES NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES).
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERALL GENERALLY INCREASE TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
A FEW LOW CONFIDENCE 10-30% POPS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS. CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THEIR HIGHLY
SCATTERED NATURE (MINIMAL STORM COVERAGE AREA). SYNOPTICALLY, THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BRINGING BACK
CLEARING SKIES AND RISING PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE.
TODAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE COOLEST DAY IN THE NEXT 7+ DAYS WITH
HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID 60 (KANSAS) AND UP TO THE MID 70 (NEBRASKA)
GIVEN THE OVERCAST SKIES. HIGHS STARTING THURSDAY, WILL BEGIN A
MULTI-DAY GRADUAL WARMUP WITH MINIMAL EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10-15 MPH.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
BEYOND THURSDAY, POPS STAY BELOW 15-20% THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD (THOUGH TUESDAY). HIGHS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE INTO
THE 80S WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY STAYING OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY) SHOULD
PICK UP BETWEEN 15-25 MPH EACH DAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS TIGHTEN THE
SURFACE PRESURE GRADIENT. A LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE UPPER-LEVELS
WILL TAKEOVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FOLLOWING TODAY'S SYSTEM,
INTRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND IN TURN, OFFSETTING A SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE ADVECTING PATTERN. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BECOME THE DRIEST
DAY (MINIMUM RH WISE), POSSIBLY BRINGING BACK FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PLACES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
PREVAILING OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY,
DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETAIN
WITH 80%+ CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS STAYING WELL ABOVE MVFR. CLOUD
BASES COULD DROP AS LOW AS 5-6KFT, WITH A SECONDARY AND MORE
FILLED DECK NEAR 8-16KFT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING (80% CONFIDENCE) WITH A FEW HIGHLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS (25-35% BETWEEN 3-10PM). A PROB30 GROUP REMAINS AS
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER END.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN
UP TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-25KTS. THE DIRECTIONS
WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
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