721
FXUS63 KGID 081103
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
603 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NE AND OUR KS
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY LOW CHANCES (15-25%).
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S BY SATURDAY, APPROACHING THE
90S ON TUESDAY.
- AFTER FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE OVER, BECOMING STRONGER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY (PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS) WITH NEAR-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY/WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
BESIDES A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS AND A FAIRLY LOW ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AREAS
(ONLY 15-25%), TODAY IS SET TO BE A LOVELY ONE. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OF TEMPERATURES SHOULD CARRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
RANGE THE 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EASTERLY WINDS TODAY NO
GREATER THAN 10-15 MPH, WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO AT TIMES
VARIABLE WINDS FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME THE
STANDARD THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
HAS BEEN THE CENTER OF DISCUSSION OVER THE LAST FEW DAY WILL SOON BE
ON ITS WAY OUT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET FAR NORTH
OF THE AREA (WEAK FLOW ALOFT).
SUNDAY AND BEYOND....
A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH NO MENTION OF POPS UNTIL WEDNESDAY (10-25%). THE NATIONAL BLEND
OF MODELS (NBM) SUGGEST THAT THE MINI-WARMUP TAKING PLACE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LEVEL OFF SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER
PUSH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THE 80S AND KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF
90S FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. TROUGHING ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP DEEPEN A NORTHERN PLAINS DESTINED
SURFACE LOW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE, SHOULD BECOME
STRONGER, GENERALLY PEAKING BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH EACH DAY WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 TO 35 MPH (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY). PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR A FURTHER DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS (>90%) THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH ONLY A FEW MID-LEVEL (12-15KFT) CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE MID-WEEK LOW (CLEAR SKIES LIKELY AFTER 2Z). RISING PRESSURE
TODAY WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA RELATIVELY
QUIET AS ANY ISOLATED STORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS (VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCE 10-15%).
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING MAY PEAK BETWEEN 10-15KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON, STARTING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMING EASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. CALM TO LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL AGAIN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
DRYING CONDITIONS FROM DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LIMITING THE GROWTH OF DEWPOINTS (PRIMARILY SUNDAY). WARMING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEK (80 DEGREE HIGHS) WILL WIDEN THE SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION GAP, RESULTING IN RH VALUES POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS 15-25% SUNDAY AFTERNOON (DRIEST LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST).
MEANWHILE, STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY GUST AS
HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH. WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL TO SEVERAL AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BECOME
MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH RH VALUES MONDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE (RH AS LOW AS 20-30%), SIMILAR IF NOT A
TOUCH STRONGER WINDS COULD AGAIN PROMPT NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WE
WILL ALSO KEEP AND EYE OUT ON WEDNESDAY'S POTENTIAL AS EARLY SIGNS
POINT TOWARD A DRIER DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS LIKELY
TO CARRY OVER.
ALTHOUGH PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME
GREENING (LIMITING AVAILABLE DRY FUELS), A MAJORITY OF OUR WESTERN
NEBRASKA AREAS MAY STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST SPREADING WILDFIRES.
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE CONSIDERED DOWN THE ROAD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
FIRE WEATHER...STUMP
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