103
FXUS63 KGID 082100
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- THIS WARMTH AND CONTINUED DRYNESS WILL LEAD TO LATE-SEASON
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NEXT WEEK. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
SPECIFICS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXISTS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AND THERE ACTUALLY HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN THAT AREA. EVEN SO, THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK
LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE PRETTY LIMITED OVER OUR AREA, AND MOST
AREAS WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE SPRINKLES...AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT/VARIABLE. AS
SUCH, PATCHY RADIATION FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LOW-LYING
AREAS. THAT SAID, THE HREF MEMBERS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST (WHERE THEY'VE SEEN MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY).
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. UNDER CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY
PLEASANT "SUMMER-LIKE" DAY!
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. SOME AREAS MAY ALREADY THREATEN 90 DEGREES, AND THE
LATEST NBM SHOWS A 20-50% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-80.
AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD, GUSTIER SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH). TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 80S EACH DAY
AND COULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S FOR SOME AREAS (ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY).
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS HIGHLIGHT
AREAS TO OUR NORTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY "MEANINGFUL"
RAIN. IN FACT, BASED ON THE 12Z EPS, THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE
FOR MOST OF OUR AREA TO SEEN ZERO MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED (80%) TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH, IF
ANY, FOG DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING EAR/GRI IS VERY LOW.
EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY GREEN FUELS, MUCH OF NEBRASKA REMAINS
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS YEAR. BECAUSE OF
THIS, MANY AREAS STILL HAVE ENOUGH DORMANT/DEAD GRASSES TO
CARRY FIRE...GIVEN FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UNFORTUNATELY, INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS, COUPLED WITH LOW
HUMIDITY WILL APPROACH/EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (20% RH, 20
MPH WIND) FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN (0.10" OR MORE) IS LOW (10-20% OR
LESS) THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...MANGELS
FIRE WEATHER...MANGELS
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