284
FXUS63 KGID 082337
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- THIS WARMTH AND CONTINUED DRYNESS WILL LEAD TO LATE-SEASON
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NEXT WEEK. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
SPECIFICS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXISTS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AND THERE ACTUALLY HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN THAT AREA. EVEN SO, THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK
LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE PRETTY LIMITED OVER OUR AREA, AND MOST
AREAS WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE SPRINKLES...AT BEST. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT/VARIABLE. AS
SUCH, PATCHY RADIATION FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LOW-LYING
AREAS. THAT SAID, THE HREF MEMBERS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST (WHERE THEY'VE SEEN MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY).
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. UNDER CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY
PLEASANT "SUMMER-LIKE" DAY!
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. SOME AREAS MAY ALREADY THREATEN 90 DEGREES, AND THE
LATEST NBM SHOWS A 20-50% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-80.
AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD, GUSTIER SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH). TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 80S EACH DAY
AND COULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S FOR SOME AREAS (ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY).
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS HIGHLIGHT
AREAS TO OUR NORTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY "MEANINGFUL"
RAIN. IN FACT, BASED ON THE 12Z EPS, THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE
FOR MOST OF OUR AREA TO SEEN ZERO MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NEAR OR LESS THAN
10 KTS THROUGHOUT. EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10
KTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS EXPECTED BY 09/02Z. WINDS WILL
THEN REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
EVENTUALLY THEY SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST, BUT HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON CONDITIONS
AT EITHER TERMINAL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY GREEN FUELS, MUCH OF NEBRASKA REMAINS
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS YEAR. BECAUSE OF
THIS, MANY AREAS STILL HAVE ENOUGH DORMANT/DEAD GRASSES TO
CARRY FIRE...GIVEN FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UNFORTUNATELY, INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS, COUPLED WITH LOW
HUMIDITY WILL APPROACH/EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (20% RH, 20
MPH WIND) FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN (0.10" OR MORE) IS LOW (10-20% OR
LESS) THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...ROSSI
FIRE WEATHER...MANGELS
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