184
FXUS63 KGID 302335
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
635 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SMOKE/HAZE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ON SURFACE AIR
QUALITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY (60-90% CHANCE) MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES SINKING DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
CURRENTLY, THE THICKEST SMOKE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA, BUT THIS WILL EVENTUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD. CURRENTLY, ALL
OF THIS SMOKE IS ALOFT, WITH SURFACE AIR-QUALITY MONITORS
REPORTING SHOWING "GOOD" TO "MODERATE" ALL THE WAY UP TO THE
US/CANADA BORDER. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/INTENSITY,
BUT RAP/HRRR/RRFS SMOKE MODELS ALL SHOW SOME SURFACE SMOKE
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NEBRASKA AS NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH, AREAS OF SMOKE WERE ADDED TO THE
GRIDS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
OTHER THAN THIS SMOKE/HAZE, CAMS ARE SHOWING SPOTTY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CAPE
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN DISSIPATE IN THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. UPPER 80S ARE FAVORED IN MOST AREAS, AND EVEN SOME 90S
ARE POSSIBLE. MONDAY WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
SOME PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT AT LEAST SOME RISK WILL
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA (AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN KS) MONDAY
NIGHT.
SOME CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THAT SAID, THE BULK OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, AND,
DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL TIMING, COULD BE EAST OF US ENTIRELY.
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOST FAVORED TO SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL MONDAY/TUESDAY, BUT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS A DECENT CHANCE
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN. PER THE 12Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES, THERE IS A 40-80% CHANCE FOR 0.50"+ THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT (LOWEST CHANCES IN THE SW).
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY, BUT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING LOW-END CHANCES (20-30%) FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND FROM THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY BACK TO THE 80S BY NEXT
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. SMOKE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
VISIBILITY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
BY 06Z THEN WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND
15Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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