513
FXUS63 KGID 312330
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, RESULTING IN HAZY SKIES AND
POSSIBLE AIR QUALITY CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SMOKE
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE HIGHER ATMOSPHERE.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRACK INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY EAST OF AN ORD,
TO GRAND ISLAND LINE. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM.
- THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE.
- THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AT 3 PM WE HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. THESE STORMS
COULD CLIP PRIMARILY OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS OR BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KTS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DO BECOME SEVERE THEY WILL LIKELY ONLY BE
MARGINALLY/LOW END SEVERE (QUARTER SIZE HAIL AN 60 MPH WINDS).
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET.
THE UPPER FLOW COMING OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING SMOKE OUR WAY,
BUT PRIMARILY ELEVATED WITH LESS CERTAINTY ON NEAR SURFACE
SMOKE. EXPECT PRETTY HAZY SKIES ALOFT IN SMOKE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT BRING MUCH SMOKE TO THE
SURFACE, BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS WITH VISIBILITY
DROPS TO 5-6 MILES IN SMOKE, BUT THAT WOULD PROBABLY BE THE
OUTLIERS WITH MOST VISIBILITY REMAINING ABOVE 6 MILES. THE SMOKE
SHOULD SLIDE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SUNDAY EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY, MAINLY MID 80S.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY AT 80-90 PERCENT AND THIS COULD BE AN
APPRECIABLE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.50" TO OVER 1". MONDAY
EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING AS THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE SEVERE INITIALLY IN THE
EVENING WHEN THEY ARE FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AND
COULD JUST BE NICE RAIN MAKERS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE FRONTAL TIMING
WORKS OUT MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE
SOME LINGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY, MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE HOT JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S, BUT THEN MUCH COOLER
FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
THE PATTERN MAY REMAIN A BIT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH BRINGING MAINLY SMALL
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING NORTHEAST OF KGRI, BUT
OVERALL THE TREND WILL BE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT HOUR. EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING WITH CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE MOVING
IN OVERNIGHT WELL OFF THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
AN INVERSION TO PULL SOME OF THAT SMOKE DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE
(20%), BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ANTICIPATING ANY IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY.
BEST CHANCE (AGAIN 20%) WOULD BE AROUND 10Z-15Z SUNDAY. WILDFIRE
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT HELP IT TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TURNING SOUTHERLY AROUND
15-17Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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