299
FXUS63 KGID 011120
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
620 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TODAY, EXITING EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE (60-90%) INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S AND CHANCES (15-35%) FOR
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
TODAY...
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE 50S, WITH
LIGHT WINDS. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
THE AREA. MOST OF THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ALOFT TODAY, BUT AT LEAST
SOME SURFACE SMOKE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS (5-6 MILES). SURFACE BASED
SMOKE WILL EXIT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY, AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERALL, A FAIRLY PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
MONDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S. HIGHS WILL
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 25-35MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR AROUND 30KTS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME SEVERE. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON HOW QUICKLY/WHEN THIS FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA, BRINGING UNCERTAINTY FOR THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
WITH A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN CO/WESTERN WHICH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WHICH WILL DECREASE AS IT MOVES EAST AND LOSES DAYTIME
HEATING. OVERALL, AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES TO SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, WITH STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED (80-95%) ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.5" WILL SUPPORT
EFFICIENT RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" IN
AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE (60-90%)
TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY, WITH RAIN LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ON TUESDAY, AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30MPH.
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
UNDER ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED CHANCES (15-35%)
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EACH DAY. HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (UPPER 60S-70S), BUT LOOK TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AS
THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 8-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
MARGINAL LLWS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
KEAR, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO IMPACT KGRI
AT THIS TIME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...DAVIS
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