950
FXUS63 KGID 020535
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1235 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HAZY SKIES AND SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST OUT OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
- MOST AND MAYBE EVEN ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NBM IS
GIVING US AN 80-90% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.50" WITH BETTER THAN
50% ODDS OF OVER 1.00". VERY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
2-3" MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
- THE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING COULD BE SEVERE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA (HAIL TO
GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH).
- TUESDAY MORNING COULD STILL BE RAINY UNTIL SHOWERS EVENTUALLY
WORK OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. MUCH COOLER TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT (HIGHS IN THE 60S).
- FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND EVENTUALLY SOME 80S BY THE WEEKEND, AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-40%) EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
TONIGHT...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE HAZE/SMOKE WILL
WORK EAST OF OUR AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE CLEANER AIR. NO
PRECIPITATION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
THIS IS THE REAL DEAL FOR WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS
OUR HARDEST HIT DROUGHT COUNTIES. MANY AREAS WILL SEE 0.50-1.50"
OF RAINFALL BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT
WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE STORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA RESULTING IN SOME LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO OVER 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE A SLOWLY SAGGING
LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY INITIALLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT
TURNS INTO JUST A BIG RAIN MAKER BY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF FRONTAL FORCING SO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A LINE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY BE AFTER 5 PM MONDAY EVENING AND
INITIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TRI CITIES, MAYBE SOMETIME AFTER 8 PM. TIMING
CAN BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER. THERE WILL BE STRONG
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000
J/KG. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AS
WINDS ALOFT (500-250MB) WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 40 KTS.
A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET JUST AFTER DARK TO AROUND 50 KTS SHOULD
HELP TO SUSTAIN/FEED THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF QLCS TORNADO EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE GUST FRONT
PUSHES TOO FAR OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. SEVERE WINDS ARE
LIKELY THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS EXPECTED LINE OF STORMS, BUT
LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER THE STORMS DEVELOP.
TUESDAY COOL AND RAINY...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN EXIT TO
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER AND GENERALLY AROUND 0.25"
OR LESS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S WITH THE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING
THROUGH. HOWEVER, RAINFALL MAY BE MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AND
FORECAST MODELS ARE A BIT ALL OVER THE BOARD ON THE TIMING OF
THESE SUBTLE TROUGHS. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SEVERE WEATHER DAYS,
BUT ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER, THUS WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S MID WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME 80S AGAIN BY THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-20KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30KTS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING, AND REACH
THE TAF SITES SOMETIME 03-06Z. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN
STORMS. HAVE INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
PROB30 GROUP. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AROUND THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
THE TAF SITES.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...DAVIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page