619
FXUS63 KGID 021819
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
119 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING-
OVERNIGHT, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
(60-70MPH), LARGE HAIL (UP TO GOLF BALL) .
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.5-1" EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING-
TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE 2-4" ARE POSSIBLE.
- SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER (UPPER 50S/60S).
- ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL (UPPER 70S/LOW 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
TODAY...
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT
WILL BRING TODAY/TONIGHT'S CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND STEADILY ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH INTO
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S TO THE LOW/MID 60S. THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HELP HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. BREEZY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, GUSTING 25-35MPH.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS (5-7PM), PROVIDING THE LIFT
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500J/KG WILL
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 30KTS, IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
WITH THE LINE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND ENCOUNTERS
DECREASING INSTABILITY GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE SPC
CURRENTLY PLACES MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2)
RISK, WITH FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1) RISK, WHICH DOES A FAIRLY GOOD JOB AT SHOWING THE AREA OF
HIGHEST/LOWEST CONCERN. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT, IT WILL TRANSITION TO A PRIMARILY
DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER TIME. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF QLCS TORNADO
ALONG THE LINE AS WELL, BUT THINK THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE (80-95%) THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BRINGING WIDEPSREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA. MOST OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND 0.5-1" OF RAINFALL MONDAY
EVENING-TUESDAY, WITH THE HREF INDICATING A 70-90% CHANCE FOR 0.5",
AND A 30-80% CHANCE FOR 1".
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWAT VALUES NEARING 1.5", AROUND 1.5-2X "NORMAL" VALUES,
WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL, WITH A QUICK 1-2" POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREAS FAVORED TO SEE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL/HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE ROUGHLY ALONG A
LEXINGTON TO FULLERTON LINE. LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-4" ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE THROUGH.
TUESDAY...
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED (60-90%)
TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA, AS TEMPERATURES
ARE CONFINED TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO START THE DAY, GUSTING 25-35MPH, BUT WILL STEADILY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AHEAD
OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING SUBTLE SHORTWAVES. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (15-45%) DURING THE
EVENING- OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT ANY RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
THURSDAY ONWARDS...
ZONAL TO WEAKLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA, RESULTING
IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES (15-
45%) FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE FINER DETAILS
ON ANY OF THESE SHORTWAVES REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, AND WILL BE
COME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER, THOUGH AT THIS TIME, THERE DOESNT
LOOK TO BE ANY CLEAR/OBVIOUS DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HIGHS WILL
STEADILY CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
GOOD AVIATION WEATHER UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORMS AND GUST FRONT
ROLL IN THIS EVENING. THE TIMING ON WHEN THOSE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO OUR TAF SITES IS A BIT SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS
TAFS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GETTING TO AROUND KEARNEY AFTER 10 PM AND A LITTLE LATER THAN
THAT IN GRAND ISLAND. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT EVEN FORMED
YET SO TIMING THEM WILL BE MUCH MORE ACCURATE ONCE THEY FORM AND
GET GOING. THE ENTIRE FORECAST THEN CENTERS AROUND THESE
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL SEND OUT A GUST FRONT TURNING THE
WINDS TO MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER OFF AND ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL ALSO FALL BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BEHIND THE
FRONT. IFR CEILINGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
HOURS TONIGHT AND COULD LAST THROUGH A PORTION OF TUESDAY
MORNING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR NEZ039-040-046-060-061.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...DAVIS/WESELY
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