551
FXUS63 KGID 030531
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL TRACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 6 AND INCREASING AFTER 8 PM). PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (60-70MPH), LARGE HAIL (UP
TO GOLF BALL).
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.5-1" EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING- TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE 2-4" ARE
POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT THIS
EVENING (DAWSON, BUFFALO, SHERMAN, VALLEY, GREELEY COUNTIES)
- SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER (LOWER TO MID 60S).
- ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS, WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MOST EVERY DAY, BUT WITH THE NEXT BETTER
CHANCE (60-70%) BEING ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES STEADILY
CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL (UPPER 70S/LOW 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...
OUR PRIMARY CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE LIKELY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, THE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ARE LIKELY TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION
LEADING TO SOME LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4
INCHES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INITIALLY FORM OVER THE SANDHILLS
NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 5-6 PM AND THEN TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 7 OR 8 PM. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL FORM FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL ACTUALLY TRACK EAST NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE MORE NORTHERN STORMS COMING OUT
OF THE SANDHILLS. MOST OF OUR HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE STORMS THIS
EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATE WITH GUST FRONTS
RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE STORMS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WELL AHEAD
OF THE LINES OF CONVECTION IS NOT GOOD FOR LONGEVITY AND THESE
STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY BE INITIALLY SEVERE WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING SEVERITY FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EARLIER STORMS AND THEN
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT AS WE GO THROUGH
THE LATER EVENING. BUT EVEN THE WINDS SHOULD START TO LOSE THEIR
PUNCH ONCE THE OUTFLOWS BECOME TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOST LIKELY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
6 AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS GUST
OUT. THE LONGER THESE STORMS CAN REMAIN BALANCED AND KEEP UP
WITH THE GUST FRONT THEN THE LONGER THEY WILL SURVIVE AS THEY
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ONCE THAT OUTFLOW STARTS TO RACE
AHEAD, THEN BE READY FOR THE STORMS TO START DECREASING IN
INTENSITY.
TUESDAY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THE
STRONG STORMS WILL REDEVELOP WELL SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, LIGHTER GENERAL OFF AND ON AGAIN RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY (80-90%) WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD WORK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE AREA DRYING OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH ALL OF THE MORNING RAIN AND
THEN LINGERING CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY (MOST LIKELY DRY DAY)...
WEDNESDAY IS THE DAY BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND SHOULD BE DRY WITH
THE WARMUP BEGINNING (HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S).
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN / WARMER)
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
SLIDING THROUGH BRINGING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE NEXT STRONGEST TROUGH WILL PROBABLY BE ON THURSDAY
IF TRENDS HOLD (CURRENTLY 60-70% RAIN CHANCES). WE DO EXPECT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY (NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS)...
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE WARM UP AND LARGELY
DRY OUT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VCTS IS POSSIBLE FOR KGRI FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
SOME GUSTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AROUND 22Z AND WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 01Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039-040-
046-060-061.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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